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US Dollar May Rise as Retail Sales Data Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar May Rise as Retail Sales Data Fuels Fed Rate Hike Bets

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Rise if Upbeat Retail Sales Report Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets
  • Yen Corrects Lower After Surge, NZ Dollar Sinks as RBNZ Delivers Rate Cut
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A lull in high-profile scheduled event risk on the European front is likely to see investors looking ahead to May’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 1.2 percent, marking the largest gain in 14 months.

US economic news-flow has increasingly firmed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result may fuel bets on a sooner Fed interest rate hike, boosting the US Dollar. As it stands, futures markets price in the first post-QE increase in the benchmark lending rate in October.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 2.7 percent on average against its leading counterparts after the RBNZ issued an unexpected interest rate cut. Graeme Wheeler – the central bank’s Governor – said the move reflected “low inflationary pressures and [an] expected weakening in demand”. He added that policymakers “expect further easing may be appropriate”.

The Japanese Yen turned broadly lower as prices corrected after yesterday’s dramatic rally that delivered the largest daily advance in nearly five months after supportive comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda. We have now entered short GBPJPY.


Asia Session

21:00NZDRBNZ Official Cash Rate (JUN 11)3.25%3.50%3.50%
23:01GBPRICS House Price Balance (MAY)34%36%32%
23:27NZDREINZ House Sales (YoY) (MAY)21.6%-27.6%
23:50JPYBSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (2Q)-1.2-1.9
23:50JPYBSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (2Q)-6-2.4
01:00AUDConsumer Inflation Expectation (JUN)3.0%-3.6%
01:30AUDEmployment Change (MAY)42.0K15.0K-13.7K
01:30AUDUnemployment Rate (MAY)6.0%6.2%6.1%
01:30AUDFull Time Employment Change (MAY)14.7K--23.9K
01:30AUDPart Time Employment Change (MAY)27.3K-10.3K
01:30AUDParticipation Rate (MAY)64.7%64.8%64.7%
02:00JPYTokyo Avg Office Vacancies (MAY)5.17-5.34
05:30CNYIndustrial Production (YoY) (MAY)6.1%6.0%5.9%
05:30CNYRetail Sales (YoY) (MAY)10.1%10.1%10.0%
05:30CNYFixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (MAY)11.4%11.9%12.0%

European Session

No Data

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.