Talking Points:
- US Dollar May Rise if Upbeat Retail Sales Report Boosts Fed Rate Hike Bets
- Yen Corrects Lower After Surge, NZ Dollar Sinks as RBNZ Delivers Rate Cut
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
A lull in high-profile scheduled event risk on the European front is likely to see investors looking ahead to May’s US Retail Sales report for direction cues. Receipts are expected to rise 1.2 percent, marking the largest gain in 14 months.
US economic news-flow has increasingly firmed relative to consensus forecasts since mid-May, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result may fuel bets on a sooner Fed interest rate hike, boosting the US Dollar. As it stands, futures markets price in the first post-QE increase in the benchmark lending rate in October.
The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 2.7 percent on average against its leading counterparts after the RBNZ issued an unexpected interest rate cut. Graeme Wheeler – the central bank’s Governor – said the move reflected “low inflationary pressures and [an] expected weakening in demand”. He added that policymakers “expect further easing may be appropriate”.
The Japanese Yen turned broadly lower as prices corrected after yesterday’s dramatic rally that delivered the largest daily advance in nearly five months after supportive comments from BOJ Governor Kuroda. We have now entered short GBPJPY.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | NZD | RBNZ Official Cash Rate (JUN 11) | 3.25% | 3.50% | 3.50% |
| 23:01 | GBP | RICS House Price Balance (MAY) | 34% | 36% | 32% |
| 23:27 | NZD | REINZ House Sales (YoY) (MAY) | 21.6% | - | 27.6% |
| 23:50 | JPY | BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (2Q) | -1.2 | - | 1.9 |
| 23:50 | JPY | BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (2Q) | -6 | - | 2.4 |
| 01:00 | AUD | Consumer Inflation Expectation (JUN) | 3.0% | - | 3.6% |
| 01:30 | AUD | Employment Change (MAY) | 42.0K | 15.0K | -13.7K |
| 01:30 | AUD | Unemployment Rate (MAY) | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| 01:30 | AUD | Full Time Employment Change (MAY) | 14.7K | - | -23.9K |
| 01:30 | AUD | Part Time Employment Change (MAY) | 27.3K | - | 10.3K |
| 01:30 | AUD | Participation Rate (MAY) | 64.7% | 64.8% | 64.7% |
| 02:00 | JPY | Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (MAY) | 5.17 | - | 5.34 |
| 05:30 | CNY | Industrial Production (YoY) (MAY) | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| 05:30 | CNY | Retail Sales (YoY) (MAY) | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.0% |
| 05:30 | CNY | Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (MAY) | 11.4% | 11.9% | 12.0% |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No Data |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1071 | 1.1197 | 1.1261 | 1.1323 | 1.1387 | 1.1449 | 1.1575 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5114 | 1.5299 | 1.5415 | 1.5484 | 1.5600 | 1.5669 | 1.5854 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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