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Euro to Look Past GDP Data, Focus on Greece-Linked News Flow

Euro to Look Past GDP Data, Focus on Greece-Linked News Flow

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Revised 1Q Eurozone GDP Figures Unlikely to Generate Significant Volatility
  • Euro Focused on Greece-Linked News Flow as Funding Deal Remains Elusive
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The second revision of first-quarter Eurozone GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The release is expected to confirm flash estimates showing output added 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year.

Absent a particularly sharp deviation, the outcome seems unlikely to generate a significant response from the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. The central bank seems to be on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.

Greece-related news-flow remains in focus for the single currency, with traders keeping a close eye on commentary from both Athens and the creditor side of negations for signs of progress. Indeed, the inverse correlation between EUR/USD and Greece’s 10-year bond yield – a proxy for funding fears – is now at a formidable 0.70 on rolling 20-day studies.

While there are no scheduled events on this front in the day ahead, headline risk remains significant as investors monitor rhetoric ahead of a potential meeting between German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollade and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras on Wednesday. French Finance Minister Michel Sapin conditioned the sit-down on interim progress toward a deal.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (MAY)

-1.1%

-

-0.5%

22:45

NZD

Mfg Activity SA (QoQ) (1Q)

-2.8%

-

-1.0%

22:45

NZD

Mfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.3%

-

0.6%

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAY)

0.0%

1.2%

-2.4%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (MAY)

4.0%

3.6%

3.6%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAY)

3.3%

3.0%

3.0%

00:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (MAY)

9.0%

-

8.3%

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (MAY)

7

-

4.0

01:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (MAY)

7

-

3.0

01:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (MAY)

1.2%

1.3%

1.5%

01:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (MAY)

-4.6%

-4.5%

-4.6%

01:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (APR)

1.0%

-2.0%

1.5%

01:30

AUD

Investment Lending (APR)

2.6%

-

7.1%

01:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (APR)

3.1%

-

1.9%

01:30

AUD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)

0.0%

-

2.3%

05:00

JPY

Consumer Confidence Index (MAY)

41.9

41.5

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (MAY)

3.2%

3.3%

Medium

05:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (MAY)

3.3%

3.3%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Labor Costs WDA (YoY) (1Q)

-

2.0%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Labor Costs SA (QoQ) (1Q)

-

1.0%

Low

06:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY P)

-

10.5%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (MAY)

0.1%

-0.2%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (MAY)

-1.3%

-1.1%

Medium

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY)

-

-0.2%

Low

07:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY)

-

-0.8%

Low

08:30

GBP

Visible Trade Balance (£/Mn) (APR)

- 9950

- 10122

Medium

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance Non EU (£/Mn) (APR)

- 3000

- 3163

Low

08:30

GBP

Trade Balance (£/Mn) (APR)

- 2600

- 2817

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.4%

0.4%

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP SA (YoY) (1Q P)

1.0%

1.0%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0777

1.1002

1.1147

1.1227

1.1372

1.1452

1.1677

GBPUSD

1.5028

1.5170

1.5259

1.5312

1.5401

1.5454

1.5596

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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