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Euro to Look Past GDP Data, Focus on Greece-Linked News Flow

Euro to Look Past GDP Data, Focus on Greece-Linked News Flow

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Revised 1Q Eurozone GDP Figures Unlikely to Generate Significant Volatility
  • Euro Focused on Greece-Linked News Flow as Funding Deal Remains Elusive
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The second revision of first-quarter Eurozone GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The release is expected to confirm flash estimates showing output added 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year.

Absent a particularly sharp deviation, the outcome seems unlikely to generate a significant response from the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. The central bank seems to be on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60 billion/month QE effort through September 2016.

Greece-related news-flow remains in focus for the single currency, with traders keeping a close eye on commentary from both Athens and the creditor side of negations for signs of progress. Indeed, the inverse correlation between EUR/USD and Greece’s 10-year bond yield – a proxy for funding fears – is now at a formidable 0.70 on rolling 20-day studies.

While there are no scheduled events on this front in the day ahead, headline risk remains significant as investors monitor rhetoric ahead of a potential meeting between German Chancellor Merkel, French President Hollade and Greek Prime Minister Tsipras on Wednesday. French Finance Minister Michel Sapin conditioned the sit-down on interim progress toward a deal.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
22:00NZDANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (MAY)-1.1%--0.5%
22:45NZDMfg Activity SA (QoQ) (1Q)-2.8%--1.0%
22:45NZDMfg Activity Volume (QoQ) (1Q)-0.3%-0.6%
23:01GBPBRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAY)0.0%1.2%-2.4%
23:50JPYMoney Stock M2 (YoY) (MAY)4.0%3.6%3.6%
23:50JPYMoney Stock M3 (YoY) (MAY)3.3%3.0%3.0%
00:00NZDQV House Prices (YoY) (MAY)9.0%-8.3%
01:30AUDNAB Business Conditions (MAY)7-4.0
01:30AUDNAB Business Confidence (MAY)7-3.0
01:30CNYCPI (YoY) (MAY)1.2%1.3%1.5%
01:30CNYPPI (YoY) (MAY)-4.6%-4.5%-4.6%
01:30AUDHome Loans (MoM) (APR)1.0%-2.0%1.5%
01:30AUDInvestment Lending (APR)2.6%-7.1%
01:30AUDOwner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (APR)3.1%-1.9%
01:30AUDANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)0.0%-2.3%
05:00JPYConsumer Confidence Index (MAY)41.941.5

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
05:45CHFUnemployment Rate (MAY)3.2%3.3%Medium
05:45CHFUnemployment Rate SA (MAY)3.3%3.3%Medium
06:00EURGerman Labor Costs WDA (YoY) (1Q)-2.0%Low
06:00EURGerman Labor Costs SA (QoQ) (1Q)-1.0%Low
06:00JPYMachine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY P)-10.5%Low
07:15CHFCPI (MoM) (MAY)0.1%-0.2%Medium
07:15CHFCPI (YoY) (MAY)-1.3%-1.1%Medium
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY)--0.2%Low
07:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY)--0.8%Low
08:30GBPVisible Trade Balance (£/Mn) (APR)- 9950- 10122Medium
08:30GBPTrade Balance Non EU (£/Mn) (APR)- 3000- 3163Low
08:30GBPTrade Balance (£/Mn) (APR)- 2600- 2817Low
09:00EUREurozone GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q P)0.4%0.4%High
09:00EUREurozone GDP SA (YoY) (1Q P)1.0%1.0%High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.07771.10021.11471.12271.13721.14521.1677
GBPUSD1.50281.51701.52591.53121.54011.54541.5596

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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