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Currencies to Look Past BOE Rate Decision as Greece Crisis Looms Large

Currencies to Look Past BOE Rate Decision as Greece Crisis Looms Large

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • FX Markets to Look Past BOE Rate Decision, Focus on Greece News-Flow
  • Australian Dollar Down After Soft Data Revives RBA Interest Rate Cut Bets
  • See Economic Data Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours but seems unlikely to generate a significant from the British Pound. The central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report hinted no rate cuts would materialize until mid-2016. Policymakers don’t release an explanatory statement absent a change in policy, meaning today’s outing will probably prove to be a non-event.

Meanwhile, negotiations between Greece and its creditors are expected to continue, with markets clued to the headlines for a progress report. Agreement on a set of proposals concocted at a top-level meeting in Berlin earlier in the week proved elusive yesterday but debate is set to continue. Traders have been sanguine on the process thus far, with Greek bond yields falling and the Euro rallying in the past two days.

The Australian Dollar faced selling pressure in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.8 percent on average against its top counterparts, after a disappointing set of economic data rekindled RBA interest rate cut speculation. Indeed, the Aussie’s descent tracked a parallel pullback in front-end bond yields.

The trade balance deficit ballooned to -A$3.9 billion, disappointing bets on a –A$2.1 billion result and delivering the largest monthly shortfall on record (since at least 1971). Meanwhile, retail sales growth unexpectedly stalled over the same period, yielding the worst performance in 11 months.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Value of All Buildings SA (QoQ) (1Q)

1.0%

1.0%

-2.1%

01:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (APR)

-3888M

-2100M

-1231M

01:30

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.0%

0.3%

0.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (MAY)

-

51.0

Low

08:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAY)

-

5.1%

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (MAY)

-

52.6

Medium

08:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (MAY)

-

49.5

Medium

08:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (MAY)

-

46.2

Low

08:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (MAY)

-

49.0

Low

11:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (JUN)

£375B

£375B

High

11:00

GBP

Bank of England Bank Rate (JUN 4)

0.50%

0.50%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0803

1.1008

1.1141

1.1213

1.1346

1.1418

1.1623

GBPUSD

1.5074

1.5198

1.5269

1.5322

1.5393

1.5446

1.5570

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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