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Euro Looks for Greece Deal Clues at ECB Press Conference

Euro Looks for Greece Deal Clues at ECB Press Conference

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

A monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar in the hours ahead. A change in policy seems overwhelmingly unlikely, with the monetary authority seemingly on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60/month QE effort. That puts the spotlight on ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference following the rate decision. Greece-related commentary is likely to take top billing, with traders particularly keen to learn the details of a last-ditch funding deal offer made by Athens’ creditors yesterday.

The final batch of May’s UK PMI figures is likewise on tap. The Composite gauge is expected to print at 58.4, implying the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth remained unchanged on whole compared with the prior month. UK economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts over recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh on the British Pound as traders push out the expected timeline for the onset of BOE tightening.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The move followed better-than-expected GDP figures that showed output grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter, topping economists’ forecasts projecting a 0.7 percent increase. The Aussie’s advance tracked an advance in front-end bond yields, suggesting the upbeat result helped scatter RBA rate cut expectations. Easing bets have been dissipating since yesterday’s policy announcement.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
23:01GBPBRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAY)-1.9%-1.8%-1.9%
23:30AUDAiG Perf of Services Index (MAY)49.6-49.7
01:00NZDANZ Commodity Price (MAY)-4.7%--7.4%
01:30AUDGDP SA (QoQ) (1Q)0.9%0.7%0.5%
01:30AUDGDP (YoY) (1Q)2.3%2.1%2.4%
01:35JPYMarkit Japan Services PMI (MAY)51.5-51.3
01:35JPYMarkit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI (MAY)51.6-50.7
01:45CNYHSBC China Composite PMI (MAY)51.2-51.3
01:45CNYHSBC China Services PMI (MAY)53.5-52.9

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
06:00GBPNationwide House Price (MoM) (MAY)0.4%1.0%Medium
06:00GBPNationwide House Price (YoY) (MAY)4.9%5.2%Medium
07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (MAY)52.853.1Low
07:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (MAY)53.753.9Low
07:50EURMarkit France Services PMI (MAY F)51.651.6Low
07:50EURMarkit France Composite PMI (MAY F)51.051.0Medium
07:55EURMarkit Germany Services PMI (MAY F)52.952.9Medium
07:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Composite PMI (MAY F)52.852.8Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (MAY F)53.353.3Medium
08:00EURMarkit Eurozone Composite PMI (MAY F)53.453.4Medium
08:00EURItalian Unemployment Rate (APR P)12.9%13.0%Low
08:00EURItalian Unemployment Rate Quarterly (1Q)12.9%13.0%Low
08:30GBPOfficial Reserves Changes (MAY)-$325MLow
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Services PMI (MAY)59.259.5High
08:30GBPMarkit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (MAY)58.458.4High
09:00EUREurozone Unemployment Rate (APR)11.2%11.3%Medium
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)0.6%-0.8%Medium
09:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)2.0%1.6%Medium
09:00EUROECD Economic Outlook--Medium
11:45EURECB Main Refinancing Rate (JUN 3)0.05%0.05%High
11:45EURECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUN 3)-0.20%-0.20%High
11:45EURECB Marginal Lending Facility (JUN 3)0.30%0.30%High
12:30EURECB President Draghi Press Conference--High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.05341.0811.09811.10861.12571.13621.1638
GBPUSD1.49231.5111.52271.52971.54141.54841.5671

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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