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Euro Looks for Greece Deal Clues at ECB Press Conference

Euro Looks for Greece Deal Clues at ECB Press Conference

2015-06-03 03:53:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro Looks for Greece Deal Clues at Presser Following ECB Rate Decision
  • British Pound Eyes UK PMI Data to Inform BOE Interest Rate Hike Outlook
  • Australian Dollar Gains as Upbeat GDP Data Undercuts RBA Rate Cut Bets

A monetary policy announcement from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar in the hours ahead. A change in policy seems overwhelmingly unlikely, with the monetary authority seemingly on auto-pilot as it continues to implement its €60/month QE effort. That puts the spotlight on ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference following the rate decision. Greece-related commentary is likely to take top billing, with traders particularly keen to learn the details of a last-ditch funding deal offer made by Athens’ creditors yesterday.

The final batch of May’s UK PMI figures is likewise on tap. The Composite gauge is expected to print at 58.4, implying the pace of manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth remained unchanged on whole compared with the prior month. UK economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts over recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh on the British Pound as traders push out the expected timeline for the onset of BOE tightening.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The move followed better-than-expected GDP figures that showed output grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter, topping economists’ forecasts projecting a 0.7 percent increase. The Aussie’s advance tracked an advance in front-end bond yields, suggesting the upbeat result helped scatter RBA rate cut expectations. Easing bets have been dissipating since yesterday’s policy announcement.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAY)

-1.9%

-1.8%

-1.9%

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Services Index (MAY)

49.6

-

49.7

01:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (MAY)

-4.7%

-

-7.4%

01:30

AUD

GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q)

0.9%

0.7%

0.5%

01:30

AUD

GDP (YoY) (1Q)

2.3%

2.1%

2.4%

01:35

JPY

Markit Japan Services PMI (MAY)

51.5

-

51.3

01:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Japan Composite PMI (MAY)

51.6

-

50.7

01:45

CNY

HSBC China Composite PMI (MAY)

51.2

-

51.3

01:45

CNY

HSBC China Services PMI (MAY)

53.5

-

52.9

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price (MoM) (MAY)

0.4%

1.0%

Medium

06:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price (YoY) (MAY)

4.9%

5.2%

Medium

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (MAY)

52.8

53.1

Low

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (MAY)

53.7

53.9

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Services PMI (MAY F)

51.6

51.6

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Composite PMI (MAY F)

51.0

51.0

Medium

07:55

EUR

Markit Germany Services PMI (MAY F)

52.9

52.9

Medium

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI (MAY F)

52.8

52.8

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Services PMI (MAY F)

53.3

53.3

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI (MAY F)

53.4

53.4

Medium

08:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate (APR P)

12.9%

13.0%

Low

08:00

EUR

Italian Unemployment Rate Quarterly (1Q)

12.9%

13.0%

Low

08:30

GBP

Official Reserves Changes (MAY)

-

$325M

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI (MAY)

59.2

59.5

High

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Composite PMI (MAY)

58.4

58.4

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (APR)

11.2%

11.3%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.6%

-0.8%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

2.0%

1.6%

Medium

09:00

EUR

OECD Economic Outlook

-

-

Medium

11:45

EUR

ECB Main Refinancing Rate (JUN 3)

0.05%

0.05%

High

11:45

EUR

ECB Deposit Facility Rate (JUN 3)

-0.20%

-0.20%

High

11:45

EUR

ECB Marginal Lending Facility (JUN 3)

0.30%

0.30%

High

12:30

EUR

ECB President Draghi Press Conference

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0534

1.081

1.0981

1.1086

1.1257

1.1362

1.1638

GBPUSD

1.4923

1.511

1.5227

1.5297

1.5414

1.5484

1.5671

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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