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Euro to Look Past CPI Data as Greece Headlines Dominate the Spotlight

Euro to Look Past CPI Data as Greece Headlines Dominate the Spotlight

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro to Look Past May Inflation Data, Focus on Greece-Related News Flow
  • Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Disappoints Bets on Dovish Shift in Rhetoric
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of May Eurozone CPIfigures headlines the data docket in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.2 percent, the highest in six months. The outcome seems unlikely to meaningfully drive the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy bets.

Rather, the single currency will look to Greece-related news-flow for direction cues. Negotiations have entered the proverbial 11th hour amid worries that Athens may fail to repay over €300 million due to the IMF on Friday, triggering events leading to insolvency and a possible ejection from the Eurozone.

Key figures from the lender side of the impasse – German Chancellor Merkel, IMF Managing Director Lagarde, ECB President Draghi, French President Hollande and EC President Juncker – met to develop a list of conditions for Greece to meet in exchange for funding in a last-ditch attempt to avoid deeper crisis. Markets will keep a close eye on follow-up headlines to gauge how the effort will progress in the days ahead.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, rising over 1 percent on average against its top counterparts, following the RBA monetary policy announcement. While policymakers’ decision to keep the cash rate unchanged at 2 percent was widely expected, a parallel drop in the Aussie and front-end bond yields in recent weeks hinted at pre-positioning for a dovish forward guidance turn. That did not materialize, with Governor Glen Stevens and company keeping to a non-committal, data-dependent posture.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (1Q)

1.5%

1.7%

-2.3%

23:30

AUD

Australian Weekly Consumer Confidence Index

113.5

-

113.5

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (MAY)

35.6%

-

35.2%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base End of period (¥) (MAY)

307.4T

-

305.9T

01:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (APR)

0.9%

0.3%

0.0%

01:30

JPY

Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (APR)

0.1%

-

-2.7%

01:30

AUD

BoP Current Account Balance (1Q)

-10.7B

-10.8B

-10.2B

01:30

AUD

Net Exports of GDP (1Q)

0.50

0.00

0.70

04:30

AUD

RBA Cash Rate Target (JUN 2)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (MAY)

-10K

-8K

Medium

07:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate (MAY)

6.4%

6.4%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (APR)

1.0B

1.2B

Low

08:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (APR)

1.9B

1.8B

Low

08:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (APR)

63.5K

61.3K

Medium

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (APR)

-

0.3%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (APR)

-

-0.6%

Low

08:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (APR)

4.0%

2.5%

Low

08:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (MAY)

55.0

54.2

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (MoM) (APR)

0.1%

0.2%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (YoY) (APR)

-2.0%

-2.3%

Medium

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (MAY)

0.2%

0.0%

High

09:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (MAY A)

0.7%

0.6%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0793

1.0873

1.0900

1.0953

1.0980

1.1033

1.1113

GBPUSD

1.5050

1.5155

1.5178

1.5260

1.5283

1.5365

1.5470

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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