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Euro Drops on Greece Fears, Pound Looks to PMI for BOE Rates Cues

Euro Drops on Greece Fears, Pound Looks to PMI for BOE Rates Cues

2015-06-01 07:15:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro Likely to Look Beyond German CPI Gain, Drops on Greece Worries
  • British Pound Eyeing UK Manufacturing PMI for BOE Rates Outlook Cues
  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Euro underperformed at the start of the trading week, falling as much as 0.4 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appeared to reflect Greece-related worries amid concerns that Athens will be unable to repay over €300 million due to the IMF on Friday, triggering events leading to insolvency and a possible ejection from the Eurozone.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars proved best-supported on the session, adding as much as 0.6 and 0.4 percent. The move appeared corrective after the two currencies suffered the deepest losses among the majors against the US Dollar last week. A pickup in Chinese Manufacturing PMI may have also helped. The gauge advanced to 50.2, showing the pace of factory-sector activity growth hit the fastest since November 2014.

May’s UK Manufacturing PMI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. A rebound to 52.5 is expected after the index dropped to a seven-month low at 51.9 in April. UK economic news-flow has increasingly underperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent months, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh on the British Pound as traders push out the expected timeline for the first post-crisis BOE interest rate hike.

The preliminary set of May German CPI data is likewise due to cross the wires. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to rise to 0.7 percent, the highest in seven months. The outcome seems unlikely to meaningfully drive the Euro however considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy bets.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (MAY)

52.3

-

48.0

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (YoY) (1Q)

7.3%

-0.2%

2.8%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending Ex Software (1Q)

8.1%

2.0%

3.9%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (1Q)

0.4%

-

11.6%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (1Q)

-0.5%

-

2.4%

23:50

JPY

Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (APR)

2.63%

-

3.01%

00:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY)

0.3%

-

0.3%

00:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY)

1.4%

-

1.4%

01:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

50.2

50.3

50.1

01:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (MAY)

53.2

-

53.4

01:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q)

0.2%

0.0%

-0.4%

01:30

AUD

Inventories SA (QoQ) (1Q)

0.4%

0.1%

-0.8%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (APR)

-4.4%

-1.8%

2.9%

01:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (APR)

16.3%

20.5%

24.6%

01:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Japan Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

50.9

-

50.9

01:45

CNY

HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

49.2

49.2

49.1

05:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAY)

1.4%

-

5.0%

06:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index AUD (MAY)

79.2

-

81.0

06:30

AUD

RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (MAY)

-19.5%

-

-20.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:30

CHF

Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

47.8

47.9

Medium

07:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI (MAY)

53.6

53.8

Low

07:50

EUR

Markit France Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

49.3

49.3

Low

07:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

51.4

51.4

Medium

08:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (MAY F)

52.3

52.3

Medium

08:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA (MAY)

52.5

51.9

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (MAY P)

0.1%

0.0%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (MAY P)

0.7%

0.5%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAY P)

0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY P)

0.6%

0.3%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0813

1.0893

1.0940

1.0973

1.1020

1.1053

1.1133

GBPUSD

1.5080

1.5185

1.5238

1.5290

1.5343

1.5395

1.5500

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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