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US Dollar at Risk on GDP Downgrade, NZ Dollar Down on RBNZ Bets

US Dollar at Risk on GDP Downgrade, NZ Dollar Down on RBNZ Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar Swoons Amid Building RBNZ Interest Rate Cut Speculation
  • Unexpected Swiss GDP Drop Fuels SNB Easing Bets, Punishes Franc
  • US Dollar May Weaken as GDP Downgrade Weighs on Fed Outlook

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.8 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a slump in front-end bond yields, pointing to building RBNZ rate cut speculation as the catalyst behind the move.

A round of disappointing economic data may have inspired the shift in investors’ outlook. Building permits fell 1.7 percent in April while a measure of business confidence from ANZ bank dropped to the lowest level since September 2014. Markets now price in a 54 percent probability of an RBNZ rate cut at the next policy meeting. That amounts to the most certain that investors have been about on-coming easing in three years.

The Swiss Franc likewise traded lower after GDP figures unexpectedly showed the economy contracted 0.2 percent in the first quarter, marking the worst result since the three months through September 2011. The currency’s slump was mirrored by a drop in Switzerland’s benchmark 10-year bond yield, suggesting investors took the data to mean an expansion of the SNB’s stimulus efforts may be in the cards.

Looking ahead, a revised set of first-quarter US GDP figures is in focus. A downward revision showing output shrank at an annualized pace of 0.9 percent is expected. Initial estimates pointed to a 0.2 percent increase. A soft print may weigh on the US Dollar as investors turn their gaze back to Fed rate hike expectations, which have conspicuously stagnated this week even as the greenback soared.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (APR)

-1.7%

-

10.3%

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (MAY)

1

4

4

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (APR)

3.3%

3.4%

3.4%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (APR)

1.17

1.15

1.15

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (APR)

-1.3%

3.0%

-10.6%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI (YoY) (APR)

0.6%

0.6%

2.3%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)

0.3%

0.2%

2.2%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (APR)

0.4%

0.3%

2.1%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (MAY)

0.5%

0.5%

0.7%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (MAY)

0.2%

0.2%

0.4%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAY)

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (APR P)

1.0%

1.0%

-0.8%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (APR P)

-0.1%

-0.1%

-1.7%

01:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (APR)

0.6%

-

4.4%

01:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (MAY)

32.6

-

41.3

01:00

NZD

ANZ Business Confidence (MAY)

15.7

-

30.2

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (APR)

0.3%

0.5%

0.5%

01:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (APR)

6.1%

6.3%

6.2%

03:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (APR)

7.7%

-

8.3%

04:00

JPY

Vehicle Production (YoY) (APR)

-7.5%

-

-6.5%

05:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (APR)

0.4%

0.2%

0.7%

05:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (APR)

0.913M

0.910M

0.92M

05:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (APR)

-12.1%

-

10.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

05:45

CHF

GDP (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.2% (A)

0.5%

Medium

05:45

CHF

GDP (YoY) (1Q)

1.1% (A)

1.9%

Medium

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (APR)

1.7% (A)

-1.4%

Low

06:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (APR)

1.0% (A)

4.3%

Low

07:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (MAY)

93.1 (A)

89.8

Low

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 Money Supply (YoY) (APR)

4.9%

4.6%

Medium

08:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 3-Month Average (APR)

4.5%

4.1%

Medium

08:00

EUR

Italian GDP w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)

0.3%

0.3%

Medium

08:00

EUR

Italian GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

08:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (MAY)

-

53

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0664

1.0774

1.0839

1.0884

1.0949

1.0994

1.1104

GBPUSD

1.5094

1.5229

1.5292

1.5364

1.5427

1.5499

1.5634

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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