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Pound May Overlook UK GDP Upgrade, Aussie Dollar Drops on Capex Data

Pound May Overlook UK GDP Upgrade, Aussie Dollar Drops on Capex Data

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.5 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed a disappointing first-quarter Private Capital Expenditure reading.

The report showed capex spending fell 4.4 percent in the first three months of the year, marketing the largest drawdown since the third quarter of 2009. The currency’s decline tracked a drop in Australian front-end bond yields, suggesting the soft data set fueled RBA rate cut speculation.

The Yen briefly the lowest levels since 2002 against the US Dollar as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index spiked to a 15-year high, weighing on the safety-linked currency. Losses proved fleeting however as share prices reversed course.

The second revision of second-quarter UK GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. A slight upgrade showing output expanded 0.4 percent in the first three months of the year is expected. Initial estimates pointed to a 0.3 percent gain.

An upbeat outcome may prove supportive for the British Pound but follow-through seems unlikely to prove lasting considering the outcome’s limited implications for near-term BOE rate hike speculation. Indeed, the central bank’s latest quarterly Inflation Report suggested policymakers’ baseline assumption is for tightening to begin no sooner than mid-2016.

Traders will likewise continue to monitor news-flow emerging from the ongoing G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs meeting in Dresden. The situation in Greece is likely to feature prominently in the discussion. The markets will be keen to gauge the tone of conversion considering the funding crisis’ formative impact on price action over recent days.


Asia Session

23:50JPYRetail Trade (YoY) (APR)5.0%5.5%-9.7%
23:50JPYRetail Sales (MoM) (APR)0.4%1.1%-1.9%
23:50JPYLarge Retailers' Sales (APR)8.6%9.1%-13.0%
01:30AUDPrivate Capital Expenditure (1Q)-4.4%-2.2%-2.2%

European Session

06:00CHFTrade Balance (APR)-2.52BLow
06:00CHFExports Real (MoM) (APR)-1.2%Low
06:00CHFImports Real (MoM) (APR)--2.4%Low
06:00EURImport Price Index (MoM) (APR)0.5%1.0%Low
06:00EURImport Price Index (YoY) (APR)-0.7%-1.4%Low
06:20USDFed's Williams Speaks in Singapore--Medium
08:30GBPBBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)3930038751Low
08:30GBPGDP (QoQ) (1Q P)0.4%0.3%High
08:30GBPGDP (YoY) (1Q P)2.5%2.4%High
08:30GBPPrivate Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P)0.7%0.6%Low
08:30GBPGovernment Spending (QoQ) (1Q P)0.3%-0.2%Low
08:30GBPGross Fixed Capital Formation (QoQ) (1Q P)0.9%-0.6%Low
08:30GBPExports (QoQ) (1Q P)-0.2%4.6%Low
08:30GBPImports (QoQ) (1Q P)1.2%1.6%Low
08:30GBPTotal Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)1.6%-0.9%Low
08:30GBPTotal Business Investment (YoY) (1Q P)-3.7%Low
08:30GBPIndex of Services (MoM) (MAR)0.0%0.3%Low
08:30GBPIndex of Services (3M/3M) (MAR)0.5%0.7%Low
09:00EUREurozone Economic Confidence (MAY)103.5103.7Low
09:00EUREurozone Business Climate Indicator (MAY)0.350.32Low
09:00EUREurozone Industrial Confidence (MAY)-3.0-3.2Low
09:00EUREurozone Services Confidence (MAY)6.76.7Low
09:00EUREurozone Consumer Confidence (MAY F)-5.5-5.5Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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