Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Currency Markets Eyeing G7 Meeting with Greece Fears in Focus

Currency Markets Eyeing G7 Meeting with Greece Fears in Focus

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Rally Probably Owed to Risk Aversion, Not Upbeat Economic Data
  • Greece Crisis Fears in the Spotlight as Traders Focus on Dresden G7 Summit
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar edged narrowly lower in overnight trade as prices digested following yesterday’s breakneck advance. While a wide spectrum of commentary attributed the move to an upbeat batch of US economic data, another catalyst was probably at work. Indeed, the greenback began yesterday’s advance hours before April’s Durable Goods report – the day’s first bit of scheduled event risk – came across the wires.

Rather, the US unit rallied alongside German Bund prices as European bond markets came online. Tellingly, Greece’s benchmark 10-year government bond yield advanced in tandem. This suggests the US Dollar’s advance was probably reflective of haven demand amid Greece-inspired risk aversion rather than anything on the domestic front.

In fact, Fed funds futures finished the day broadly unchanged from Friday’s close. Had US news-flow inspired the rally, the priced-in outlook would probably show an up-shift in the expected timeline for the first post-QE FOMC rate hike. The magnitude of volatility may have reflected returning liquidity as several key markets returned from the long weekend (the US, UK, Germany and Hong Kong were offline Monday).

Renewed fears followed comments from Greek Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis, who told local TV station Mega that Athens will not make June’s payment to the IMF because the money “isn’t there to be given”. This was followed by ominous comments from ESM head Klaus Regling yesterday, who hinted that a missed payment to the IMF would impact the likelihood of a deal with EU lenders and potentially herald insolvency.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European and US trading hours is likely to keep this narrative at the forefront, particularly as G7 finance ministers and central bank chiefs begin a three-day meeting in Dresden. Greece is likely to feature prominently in the discussions, and traders will keep a close eye on headlines emerging from the sit-down for direction cues.


Asia Session

00:30AUDWestpac Leading Index (MoM) (APR)0.1%--0.3%
01:30AUDConstruction Work Done (1Q)-2.4%-1.4%-0.6%
01:30CNYIndustrial Profits (YoY) (APR)2.6%--0.4%
01:45CNYWestpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (MAY)111.1-111.1
05:00JPYSmall Business Confidence (MAY)

European Session

06:00CHFUBS Consumption Indicator (APR)-1.35Low
06:00EURGerman GfK Consumer Confidence (JUN)10.010.1Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.