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Pound May Fall as US Dollar Gains as BOE, Fed Print Meeting Minutes

Pound May Fall as US Dollar Gains as BOE, Fed Print Meeting Minutes

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Fall if BOE Minutes Pour Cold Water on Rate Hike Bets
  • US Dollar to Advance if Fed Meeting Minutes Dent Markets’ Dovish Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Minutes from May’s Bank of England policy meeting are in focus in European trading hours. Last week’s quarterly Inflation Report revealed that the central bank is assuming its first post-crisis interest rate hike will occur around mid-2016. That is significantly later than what is being implied by priced-in market expectations. Indeed, futures market pricing implies lift-off in the first quarter of next year. If the Minutes document shines light on this disparity, investors may well have to adjust expectations outward, sending the British Pound lower.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to minutes from April’s FOMC sit-down. Janet Yellen and company have argued that weakness seen through the winter is transitory. Indeed, there seem to be striking parallels between the first-quarter slumps in 2014 and 2015. Last year, the markets bet on a slowdown or pause of the QE “taper” after the winter downturn only to be met with steadfast resolve on from the FOMC. A parallel result this time would imply a rate hike around mid-year, not late in the fourth quarter as is now predicted. A Minutes release supportive of such a scenario could offer further support to the US Dollar after the currency issue the largest advance in two months yesterday.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

GDP SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.6%

0.4%

0.3%

23:50

JPY

GDP Annualized SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

2.4%

1.6%

1.1%

23:50

JPY

GDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (1Q P)

1.9%

1.5%

0.7%

23:50

JPY

GDP Deflator YoY (1Q P)

3.4%

3.6%

2.4%

23:50

JPY

GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.4%

0.2%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (1Q P)

0.4%

0.6%

0.0%

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans YoY (1Q P)

2.5%

-

2.5%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (MAY)

102.4

-

96.2

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (MAY)

6.4%

-

-3.2%

1:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR)

0.0%

-

0.4%

5:00

JPY

Leading Index CI (MAR F)

106.0

-

105.5

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (MAR F)

109.2

-

109.5

5:00

JPY

Supermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)

6.4%

-

-8.6%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)

10.5%

-

10.4%

7:00

JPY

Convenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

4.0%

-

-2.8%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

PPI( MoM) (APR)

0.1% (A)

0.1%

Medium

6:00

EUR

PPI (YoY) (APR)

-1.5% (A)

-1.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Minutes from May BOE Meeting

-

-

High

9:00

EUR

Construction Output (MoM) (MAR)

-

-1.8%

Low

9:00

EUR

Construction Output (YoY) (MAR)

-

-3.7%

Low

9:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey – Exp (MAY)

-

-23.2

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0784

1.0991

1.1070

1.1198

1.1277

1.1405

1.1612

GBPUSD

1.5097

1.5320

1.5417

1.5543

1.5640

1.5766

1.5989

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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