Skip to Content
News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View More
Pound May Fall as US Dollar Gains as BOE, Fed Print Meeting Minutes

Pound May Fall as US Dollar Gains as BOE, Fed Print Meeting Minutes

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Fall if BOE Minutes Pour Cold Water on Rate Hike Bets
  • US Dollar to Advance if Fed Meeting Minutes Dent Markets’ Dovish Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Minutes from May’s Bank of England policy meeting are in focus in European trading hours. Last week’s quarterly Inflation Report revealed that the central bank is assuming its first post-crisis interest rate hike will occur around mid-2016. That is significantly later than what is being implied by priced-in market expectations. Indeed, futures market pricing implies lift-off in the first quarter of next year. If the Minutes document shines light on this disparity, investors may well have to adjust expectations outward, sending the British Pound lower.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to minutes from April’s FOMC sit-down. Janet Yellen and company have argued that weakness seen through the winter is transitory. Indeed, there seem to be striking parallels between the first-quarter slumps in 2014 and 2015. Last year, the markets bet on a slowdown or pause of the QE “taper” after the winter downturn only to be met with steadfast resolve on from the FOMC. A parallel result this time would imply a rate hike around mid-year, not late in the fourth quarter as is now predicted. A Minutes release supportive of such a scenario could offer further support to the US Dollar after the currency issue the largest advance in two months yesterday.


Asia Session

23:50JPYGDP SA (QoQ) (1Q P)0.6%0.4%0.3%
23:50JPYGDP Annualized SA (QoQ) (1Q P)2.4%1.6%1.1%
23:50JPYGDP Nominal SA (QoQ) (1Q P)1.9%1.5%0.7%
23:50JPYGDP Deflator YoY (1Q P)3.4%3.6%2.4%
23:50JPYGDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (1Q P)0.4%0.2%0.4%
23:50JPYGDP Business Spending (QoQ) (1Q P)0.4%0.6%0.0%
23:50JPYHousing Loans YoY (1Q P)2.5%-2.5%
0:30AUDWestpac Consumer Conf Index (MAY)102.4-96.2
0:30AUDWestpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (MAY)6.4%--3.2%
1:00AUDSkilled Vacancies (MoM) (APR)0.0%-0.4%
5:00JPYLeading Index CI (MAR F)106.0-105.5
5:00JPYCoincident Index (MAR F)109.2-109.5
5:00JPYSupermarket Sales (YoY) (APR)6.4%--8.6%
6:00JPYMachine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR F)10.5%-10.4%
7:00JPYConvenience Store Sales (YoY) (APR)4.0%--2.8%

European Session

6:00EURPPI( MoM) (APR)0.1% (A)0.1%Medium
6:00EURPPI (YoY) (APR)-1.5% (A)-1.7%Medium
8:30GBPMinutes from May BOE Meeting--High
9:00EURConstruction Output (MoM) (MAR)--1.8%Low
9:00EURConstruction Output (YoY) (MAR)--3.7%Low
9:00CHFCredit Suisse ZEW Survey – Exp (MAY)--23.2Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.