Talking Points:
- Pound May Decline as Soft UK CPI Data Cools BOE Rate Hike Speculation
- NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Inflation Survey Undercuts Interest Rate Cut Bets
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
April’s UK CPI data is in focus in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print at 1 percent, unchanged from the 9-year low recorded in the prior month. UK economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts since early February, hinting analysts are over-estimating performance and opening the door for a downside surprise. Leading activity surveys likewise point softer pricing trends, reinforcing the possibility of a disappointing outcome. Such a result may cool UK rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.
The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a jump in benchmark bond yields, pointing to firming RBNZ policy bets as the catalyst behind the advance. The shift in traders’ expectations followed the central bank’s publication of a survey on inflation expectations, which showed respondents’ two-year outlook firmed for the first time in a year.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:45 | NZD | PPI Output (QoQ) (1Q) | -0.9% | - | -0.1% |
| 22:45 | NZD | PPI Input (QoQ) (1Q) | -1.1% | - | -0.4% |
| 23:30 | AUD | ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf | 114.6 | - | 110.6 |
| 0:00 | AUD | Conf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (MAR) | -0.1% | - | 0.5% |
| 1:30 | AUD | RBA May Meeting Minutes (MAY) | - | - | - |
| 3:00 | NZD | 2Yr Inflation Expectation (2Q) | 1.85% | - | 1.80% |
| 5:30 | JPY | Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (APR) | - | -19.7% | |
| 5:30 | JPY | Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (APR) | - | -16.5% |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 | EUR | EU27 New Car Registrations (APR) | - | 10.6% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | CPI (MoM) (APR) | 0.4% | 0.2% | High |
| 8:30 | GBP | CPI (YoY) (APR) | 0.0% | 0.0% | High |
| 8:30 | GBP | CPI Core (YoY) (APR) | 1.0% | 1.0% | High |
| 8:30 | GBP | RPI (MoM) (APR) | 0.4% | 0.2% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | RPI (YoY) (APR) | 0.9% | 0.9% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (APR) | 0.9% | 0.9% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | PPI Input NSA (MoM) (APR) | 0.8% | 0.3% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | PPI Input NSA (YoY) (APR) | -11.5% | -13.0% | Low |
| 8:30 | GBP | PPI Output NSA (MoM) (APR) | 0.2% | 0.2% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | PPI Output NSA (YoY) (APR) | -1.6% | -1.7% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (APR) | 0.0% | 0.0% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (APR) | 0.1% | 0.1% | Medium |
| 8:30 | GBP | ONS House Price (YoY) (MAR) | - | 7.2% | Low |
| 9:00 | EUR | Trade Balance SA (€) (MAR) | 21.9B | 22B | Low |
| 9:00 | EUR | Trade Balance NSA (€) (MAR) | 22B | 20.3B | Low |
| 9:00 | EUR | German ZEW - Current Situation (MAY) | 68.0 | 70.2 | Medium |
| 9:00 | EUR | German ZEW - Expectations (MAY) | 49.0 | 53.3 | Medium |
| 9:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW - Expectations (MAY) | - | 64.8 | Medium |
| 9:00 | EUR | CPI (MoM) (APR) | 0.2% | 1.1% | Medium |
| 9:00 | EUR | CPI (YoY) (APR F) | 0.0% | 0.0% | Medium |
| 9:00 | EUR | CPI Core (YoY) (APR F) | 0.6% | 0.6% | Medium |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.1048 | 1.1202 | 1.1259 | 1.1356 | 1.1413 | 1.1510 | 1.1664 |
| GBPUSD | 1.5463 | 1.5571 | 1.5612 | 1.5679 | 1.5720 | 1.5787 | 1.5895 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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