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British Pound May Weaken on Soft UK Inflation Data

British Pound May Weaken on Soft UK Inflation Data

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Pound May Decline as Soft UK CPI Data Cools BOE Rate Hike Speculation
  • NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Inflation Survey Undercuts Interest Rate Cut Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

April’s UK CPI data is in focus in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print at 1 percent, unchanged from the 9-year low recorded in the prior month. UK economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts since early February, hinting analysts are over-estimating performance and opening the door for a downside surprise. Leading activity surveys likewise point softer pricing trends, reinforcing the possibility of a disappointing outcome. Such a result may cool UK rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a jump in benchmark bond yields, pointing to firming RBNZ policy bets as the catalyst behind the advance. The shift in traders’ expectations followed the central bank’s publication of a survey on inflation expectations, which showed respondents’ two-year outlook firmed for the first time in a year.


Asia Session

22:45NZDPPI Output (QoQ) (1Q)-0.9%--0.1%
22:45NZDPPI Input (QoQ) (1Q)-1.1%--0.4%
23:30AUDANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf114.6-110.6
0:00AUDConf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (MAR)-0.1%-0.5%
1:30AUDRBA May Meeting Minutes (MAY)---
3:00NZD2Yr Inflation Expectation (2Q)1.85%-1.80%
5:30JPYNationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (APR)--19.7%
5:30JPYTokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (APR)--16.5%

European Session

6:00EUREU27 New Car Registrations (APR)-10.6%Low
8:30GBPCPI (MoM) (APR)0.4%0.2%High
8:30GBPCPI (YoY) (APR)0.0%0.0%High
8:30GBPCPI Core (YoY) (APR)1.0%1.0%High
8:30GBPRPI (MoM) (APR)0.4%0.2%Low
8:30GBPRPI (YoY) (APR)0.9%0.9%Low
8:30GBPRPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (APR)0.9%0.9%Low
8:30GBPPPI Input NSA (MoM) (APR)0.8%0.3%Low
8:30GBPPPI Input NSA (YoY) (APR)-11.5%-13.0%Low
8:30GBPPPI Output NSA (MoM) (APR)0.2%0.2%Medium
8:30GBPPPI Output NSA (YoY) (APR)-1.6%-1.7%Medium
8:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (APR)0.0%0.0%Medium
8:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (APR)0.1%0.1%Medium
8:30GBPONS House Price (YoY) (MAR)-7.2%Low
9:00EURTrade Balance SA (€) (MAR)21.9B22BLow
9:00EURTrade Balance NSA (€) (MAR)22B20.3BLow
9:00EURGerman ZEW - Current Situation (MAY)68.070.2Medium
9:00EURGerman ZEW - Expectations (MAY)49.053.3Medium
9:00EUREurozone ZEW - Expectations (MAY)-64.8Medium
9:00EURCPI (MoM) (APR)0.2%1.1%Medium
9:00EURCPI (YoY) (APR F)0.0%0.0%Medium
9:00EURCPI Core (YoY) (APR F)0.6%0.6%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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