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British Pound May Weaken on Soft UK Inflation Data

British Pound May Weaken on Soft UK Inflation Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Pound May Decline as Soft UK CPI Data Cools BOE Rate Hike Speculation
  • NZ Dollar Gains as RBNZ Inflation Survey Undercuts Interest Rate Cut Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

April’s UK CPI data is in focus in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to print at 1 percent, unchanged from the 9-year low recorded in the prior month. UK economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to consensus forecasts since early February, hinting analysts are over-estimating performance and opening the door for a downside surprise. Leading activity surveys likewise point softer pricing trends, reinforcing the possibility of a disappointing outcome. Such a result may cool UK rate hike speculation, weighing on the British Pound.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a jump in benchmark bond yields, pointing to firming RBNZ policy bets as the catalyst behind the advance. The shift in traders’ expectations followed the central bank’s publication of a survey on inflation expectations, which showed respondents’ two-year outlook firmed for the first time in a year.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

PPI Output (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.9%

-

-0.1%

22:45

NZD

PPI Input (QoQ) (1Q)

-1.1%

-

-0.4%

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

114.6

-

110.6

0:00

AUD

Conf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (MAR)

-0.1%

-

0.5%

1:30

AUD

RBA May Meeting Minutes (MAY)

-

-

-

3:00

NZD

2Yr Inflation Expectation (2Q)

1.85%

-

1.80%

5:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Sales (YoY) (APR)

-

-19.7%

5:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

-

-16.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

EU27 New Car Registrations (APR)

-

10.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.2%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (APR)

0.0%

0.0%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (APR)

1.0%

1.0%

High

8:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (APR)

0.4%

0.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (APR)

0.9%

0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int. Payments (YoY) (APR)

0.9%

0.9%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (APR)

0.8%

0.3%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (APR)

-11.5%

-13.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (APR)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (APR)

-1.6%

-1.7%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (APR)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (APR)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

ONS House Price (YoY) (MAR)

-

7.2%

Low

9:00

EUR

Trade Balance SA (€) (MAR)

21.9B

22B

Low

9:00

EUR

Trade Balance NSA (€) (MAR)

22B

20.3B

Low

9:00

EUR

German ZEW - Current Situation (MAY)

68.0

70.2

Medium

9:00

EUR

German ZEW - Expectations (MAY)

49.0

53.3

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone ZEW - Expectations (MAY)

-

64.8

Medium

9:00

EUR

CPI (MoM) (APR)

0.2%

1.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) (APR F)

0.0%

0.0%

Medium

9:00

EUR

CPI Core (YoY) (APR F)

0.6%

0.6%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1048

1.1202

1.1259

1.1356

1.1413

1.1510

1.1664

GBPUSD

1.5463

1.5571

1.5612

1.5679

1.5720

1.5787

1.5895

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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