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New Zealand Dollar Slumps as Interest Rate Expectations Deteriorate

New Zealand Dollar Slumps as Interest Rate Expectations Deteriorate

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • NZ Dollar Slumps as Markets Bet on Most Dovish RBNZ Outlook Since 2009
  • Aussie Dollar Fails to Hold Gains After Comments from RBA DepGov Lowe
  • US Dollar Corrects Higher After Dropping the Most in a Month Last Week

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade amid deteriorating RBNZ policy expectations. Priced-in bets reveal investors are leaning toward two 25 basis point rate cuts over the coming 12 months, making for the most dovish outlook since 2009.

The Australian Dollar saw a bit of a boost following remarks from RBA Deputy Governor Lowe, who hinted the central bank probably won’t cut the cash rate further in the near term.Gains proved short-lived however considering the message echoed the tone of the RBA’s latest policy statement, which have had ample time to be priced already.

The US Dollar launched a broad-based recovery, scoring gains against nearly all of the majors in a move that appeared corrective after the benchmark unit lost 1.04 percent last week, the most in a month. From here, the greenback will look to minutes from April’s FOMC meeting and April’s US CPI data (both due later this week) for direction cues.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

Performance Services Index (APR)

56.5

-

57.6

23:30

AUD

RBA’s Lowe Gives Speech in Sydney

-

-

-

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (MAR)

2.6%

-6.0%

5.9%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (MAR)

2.9%

1.5%

-1.4%

1:30

CNY

April Property Prices

-

-

-

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (APR)

-1.5%

-

0.7%

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR)

2.8%

-

4.6%

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR)

-7.6%

-

-4.0%

4:30

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR)

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.4%

4:30

JPY

BOJ Maeda Speaks at Panel Discussion

-

-

-

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR)

-1.2%

-

-3.2%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

-0.8%

-

-0.3%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)

-1.7%

-

-1.2%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

SNB Sight Deposits

-

-

Low

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-

-2.7%

Medium

13:45

EUR

ECB Publishes Asset-Purchase Data

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1128

1.1271

1.1361

1.1414

1.1504

1.1557

1.1700

GBPUSD

1.5532

1.5639

1.5683

1.5746

1.5790

1.5853

1.5960

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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