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Aussie Dollar Sinks as Iron Ore Drop Fuels RBA Easing Speculation

Aussie Dollar Sinks as Iron Ore Drop Fuels RBA Easing Speculation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Sinks on Speculation Iron Ore Drop to Inspire RBA Rate Cuts
  • Euro Gains as Greek FinMin Stokes Hopes for Funding Deal by End of May
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade after Western Australia – the epicenter of the mining boom that insulated the country through the 2008-9 global recession – released its budget figures. The state predicted a deficit of A$2.7 billion in the 2015-16 fiscal year, up from A$1.29 billion in 2014-15, and said revenues would fall by a further 2.7 percent having slid 3.3 percent in the preceding 12 months.

Perhaps most ominously, the budget report was based on an iron ore price just $47.5/ton. That would amount to a decline of over 30 percent from current levels and a drop of nearly 21 percent from the year-to-date low set in April.

Iron ore is Australia’s leading export commodity. That means that such a large price drop is likely amount to strong headwinds for overall economic growth and may spur the RBA into additional policy easing. Indeed, the Aussie declined alongside benchmark bond yields, hinting that an eroding rates outlook was the catalyst for selling pressure.

The Euro traded higher following seemingly encouraging comments from Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis, who has been recently painted as a major roadblock to a funding accord between Athens and the so-called “institutions” (EU, IMF, ECB). Mr Varoufakis said Greece agrees on most issues with its creditors and would like a dead done by the end of this month.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

NZD

Business NZ Perf of Mfg Index (APR)

51.8

-

54.6

22:45

NZD

Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)

2.7%

1.6%

1.9%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (APR)

33%

22%

22%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (APR)

3.6%

3.6%

3.6%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR)

3%

3%

3%

2:00

JPY

Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (APR)

5.34

-

5.30

3:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (APR)

70.0%

-

66.5%

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P)

10.4%

-

14.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

No Data

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0953

1.1133

1.1244

1.1313

1.1424

1.1493

1.1673

GBPUSD

1.5446

1.5581

1.5663

1.5716

157.98

158.51

1.5986

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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