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British Pound May Rise as PMI Data Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Bets

British Pound May Rise as PMI Data Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise as PMI Report Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Speculation
  • NZ Dollar Sank Overnight as FinMin English Reinforced RBNZ Easing Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The UK Manufacturing PMI report headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Factory-sector activity growth is expected to accelerate for a fourth consecutive month in April, hitting the fastest pace since July 2014. A rosy outcome may fuel continued improvement in Bank of England monetary policy expectations, sending the British Pound higher. Rate hike bets have been firming since late March, with traders now leaning toward at least one 25bps increase in the next 12 months.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The played out against a backdrop of ominous comments from Finance Minister Bill English, who hinted that he expects the RBNZ to cut interest rates if inflation remains low “for quite some time”. English added that price growth has been “lower than expected [and that has been] more persistent than expected”. Technical positioning hints NZDUSD may be readying to break downward.


Asia Session

23:30AUDAiG Perf of Mfg Index (APR)48.0-46.3
23:30JPYJobless Rate (MAR)3.4%3.5%3.5%
23:30JPYJob-To-Applicant Ratio (MAR)
23:30JPYOverall Household Spending (YoY) (MAR)-10.6%-11.8%2.9%
23:30JPYNatl CPI YoY (MAR)2.3%2.2%2.2%
23:30JPYNatl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR)2.2%2.0%2.0%
23:30JPYNatl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)2.1%2.0%2.3%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI (YoY) (APR)0.7%0.7%2.3%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)0.4%0.5%2.2%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY (APR)0.0%0.2%1.7%
0:00AUDCoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (APR)0.8%-1.4%
0:00NZDQV House Prices (YoY) (APR)8.3%-7.7%
1:00CNYManufacturing PMI (APR)
1:00CNYNon-manufacturing PMI (APR)53.4-53.7
1:30JPYLabor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)0.1%0.4%0.1%
1:30JPYReal Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)-2.6%--2.3%
1:30AUDPPI (YoY) (1Q)0.7%-1.1%
1:30AUDPPI (QoQ) (1Q)0.5%-0.1%
1:35JPYMarkit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (APR F)49.9-49.7
5:00JPYVehicle Sales (YoY) (APR)5.0%--13.1%
6:30AUDCommodity Index AUD (APR)-83.7
6:30AUDCommodity Index (YoY) (APR)--19.7%

European Session

8:30GBPM4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR)--0.2%Low
8:30GBPM4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)--3.2%Low
8:30GBPM4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR)2.2%5.0%Low
8:30GBPMortgage Approvals (MAR)62.5K61.8KMedium
8:30GBPNet Consumer Credit (MAR)0.8B0.7BLow
8:30GBPNet Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)1.8B1.7BLow
8:30GBPMarkit UK Manufacturing PMI (APR)54.654.4High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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