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British Pound May Rise as PMI Data Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Bets

British Pound May Rise as PMI Data Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Bets

2015-05-01 05:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise as PMI Report Bolsters BOE Rate Hike Speculation
  • NZ Dollar Sank Overnight as FinMin English Reinforced RBNZ Easing Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The UK Manufacturing PMI report headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Factory-sector activity growth is expected to accelerate for a fourth consecutive month in April, hitting the fastest pace since July 2014. A rosy outcome may fuel continued improvement in Bank of England monetary policy expectations, sending the British Pound higher. Rate hike bets have been firming since late March, with traders now leaning toward at least one 25bps increase in the next 12 months.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The played out against a backdrop of ominous comments from Finance Minister Bill English, who hinted that he expects the RBNZ to cut interest rates if inflation remains low “for quite some time”. English added that price growth has been “lower than expected [and that has been] more persistent than expected”. Technical positioning hints NZDUSD may be readying to break downward.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (APR)

48.0

-

46.3

23:30

JPY

Jobless Rate (MAR)

3.4%

3.5%

3.5%

23:30

JPY

Job-To-Applicant Ratio (MAR)

1.15

1.15

1.15

23:30

JPY

Overall Household Spending (YoY) (MAR)

-10.6%

-11.8%

2.9%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI YoY (MAR)

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Fresh Food (YoY) (MAR)

2.2%

2.0%

2.0%

23:30

JPY

Natl CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (MAR)

2.1%

2.0%

2.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI (YoY) (APR)

0.7%

0.7%

2.3%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (APR)

0.4%

0.5%

2.2%

23:30

JPY

Tokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy YoY (APR)

0.0%

0.2%

1.7%

0:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (APR)

0.8%

-

1.4%

0:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (APR)

8.3%

-

7.7%

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (APR)

50.1

50.0

50.1

1:00

CNY

Non-manufacturing PMI (APR)

53.4

-

53.7

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

0.1%

0.4%

0.1%

1:30

JPY

Real Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)

-2.6%

-

-2.3%

1:30

AUD

PPI (YoY) (1Q)

0.7%

-

1.1%

1:30

AUD

PPI (QoQ) (1Q)

0.5%

-

0.1%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (APR F)

49.9

-

49.7

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR)

5.0%

-

-13.1%

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index AUD (APR)

-

83.7

6:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (APR)

-

-19.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR)

-

-0.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)

-

-3.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR)

2.2%

5.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (MAR)

62.5K

61.8K

Medium

8:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (MAR)

0.8B

0.7B

Low

8:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)

1.8B

1.7B

Low

8:30

GBP

Markit UK Manufacturing PMI (APR)

54.6

54.4

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0799

1.0993

1.1109

1.1187

1.1303

1.1381

1.1575

GBPUSD

1.5006

1.5194

1.5273

1.5382

1.5461

1.5570

1.5758

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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