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Yen Gains as Fed Fuels Risk Aversion, NZ Dollar Drops on RBNZ

Yen Gains as Fed Fuels Risk Aversion, NZ Dollar Drops on RBNZ

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Yen Gains as Fed Stays the Course on Rate Hike Despite 1Q Slowdown
  • New Zealand Dollar Sinks as RBNZ Opens the Door for Policy Easing
  • Euro Unlikely to Find Lasting Momentum in Eurozone Inflation Report

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.5 percent. The move mirrored a sharp drop on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to haven flows as the driver propelling the safety-linked currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.5 percent in a move the news-wires attributed to the absence of overtly dovish rhetoric in the FOMC policy statement published earlier in the day.

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled, falling as much as 1.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts, after the RBNZ monetary policy announcement. The central bank signaled interest rate hikes were off the table and hinted it was considering lowering borrowing costs instead. The markets are pricing in at least one 25bps reduction in the baseline lending rate over the coming 12 months.

Looking ahead, the preliminary set of April’s Eurozone CPI figures are expected to show the year-on-year core inflation rate held at 0.6 percent, unchanged from the prior month. The result seems unlikely to meaningfully impact the Euro even in the event of a deviation from forecasts considering its limited impact on near-term ECB policy trends.The central bank appears essentially on auto-pilot as it proceeds with its €60 billion/month QE effort.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision

3.50%

3.50%

3.50%

22:45

NZD

Building Permits (MoM) (MAR)

11.0%

-

-6.5%

23:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence (APR)

4

4

4

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR P)

-0.3%

-2.3%

-3.1%

23:50

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR P)

-1.2%

-3.4%

-2.0%

1:30

AUD

Import price index (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.2%

1.0%

0.9%

1:30

AUD

Export price index (QoQ) (1Q)

-0.8%

0.0%

0.0%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (MoM) (MAR)

0.5%

0.5%

0.5%

1:30

AUD

Private Sector Credit (YoY) (MAR)

6.2%

6.3%

6.2%

3:00

NZD

Money Supply M3 (YoY) (MAR)

8.3%

-

6.6%

4:04

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base

¥80T

¥80T

¥80T

5:00

JPY

Housing Starts (YoY) (MAR)

0.7%

-1.9%

-3.1%

5:00

JPY

Annualized Housing Starts (MAR)

0.920M

0.892M

0.905M

5:00

JPY

Construction Orders (YoY) (MAR)

10.8%

-

1.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

5:30

CHF

SNB 1Q 2015 Currency Allocation

-

-

Medium

5:30

CHF

SNB 1Q Earnings

-

-

Medium

6:00

JPY

BOJ Semi Annual Outlook Report

-

-

High

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

0.5%

-0.1%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

3.1%

3.6%

Medium

7:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicator (APR)

91.5

90.8

Low

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (000's) (APR)

-15K

-14K

Medium

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate (APR)

6.4%

6.4%

Medium

8:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

-

-

Medium

8:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (APR)

-

53

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (MAR)

11.2%

11.3%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (APR)

0.0%

-0.1%

High

9:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (APR A)

0.6%

0.6%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0636

1.0864

1.0996

1.1092

1.1224

1.1320

1.1548

GBPUSD

1.5081

1.5251

1.5344

1.5421

1.5514

1.5591

1.5761

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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