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US Dollar Selloff Likely to Continue on Status-Quo FOMC Statement

US Dollar Selloff Likely to Continue on Status-Quo FOMC Statement

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Selling May Continue on Status-Quo FOMC Announcement
  • Aussie Dollar Corrects Lower After Largest Rally in Nearly 15 Months
  • NZ Dollar Fails to Hold Gains on Trade Data as RBNZ Looms Ahead

The outcome of April’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting is likely to dominate the spotlight in the hours ahead. A rate hike seems overwhelmingly unlikely just yet, putting the onus on the statement accompanying the announcement.

Rhetoric matching the month-to-month guidance regime introduced last month will amount to the status quo. Such an outcome may weigh on the US Dollar as the absence of fresh fuel to power near-term tightening speculation opens the door for continued profit-taking on long-USD positions.

German CPI figures are expected to show the headline year-on-year inflation rate rose to 0.4 percent in April, the highest in five months. The result seems unlikely to meaningfully impact the Euro however considering its limited impact on ECB policy trends as the central bank proceeds with its €60 billion/month QE effort.

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appeared corrective following yesterday’s outsized advance that brought the currency higher by an impressive 1.8 percent, marking the largest advance in nearly 15 months.

The New Zealand Dollar briefly rallied following better-than-expected Trade Balance figures. Follow-through quickly fizzled however, with traders seemingly unwilling to commit to a directional bias ahead of the upcoming RBNZ policy announcement.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (MAR)

631M

300M

83M

22:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (MAR)

-2407

-2700M

-2135M

22:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (MAR)

4.93B

4.40B

3.89B

22:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (MAR)

4.30B

4.05B

3.81B

1:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (APR)

30.2

-

35.8

1:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (APR)

41.3

-

42.2

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (APR)

111.1

-

114.7

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (MAR)

-

1.19

Low

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price index (MoM) (APR)

0.2%

0.1%

Medium

6:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price Index (YoY) (APR)

4.1%

3.8%

Medium

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)

4.3%

4.0%

Medium

8:00

EUR

M3 3-Month Average (MAR)

4.1%

3.8%

Medium

8:00

EUR

ECB’s Hanson Speaks on Eurozone Outlook

-

-

Low

9:00

EUR

Business Climate Indicator (APR)

0.2

0.23

Low

9:00

EUR

Industrial Confidence (APR)

-2.9

-2.9

Low

9:00

EUR

Consumer Confidence (APR F)

-4.6

-4.6

Low

9:00

EUR

Economic Confidence (APR)

103.9

103.9

Low

9:00

EUR

Services Confidence (APR)

6

6

Low

10:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (APR)

25

18

Low

12:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (APR P)

-0.1%

0.5%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY)(APR P)

0.4%

0.3%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (APR P)

-0.1%

0.5%

High

12:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (APR P)

0.2%

0.1%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0682

1.0813

1.0897

1.0944

1.1028

1.1075

1.1206

GBPUSD

1.4952

1.5119

1.5229

1.5286

1.5396

1.5453

1.562

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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