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Pound May Rise if 1Q GDP Data Rekindles 2015 Rate Hike Speculation

Pound May Rise if 1Q GDP Data Rekindles 2015 Rate Hike Speculation

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound Ma Rise if 1Q GDP Data Reboots 2015 BOE Rate Hike Hopes
  • Australian Dollar Gains with Yields Despite Lackluster Stevens Commentary
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

First-quarter UK GDP figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The year-on-year growth rate is expected to slow to 2.6 percent, marking the weakest print since the fourth quarter of 2013. While UK economic data has underperformed relative to consensus forecasts since the beginning of the year, leading survey data points to accelerating manufacturing- and service-sector activity growth through March. If this proves to foreshadow an upbeat GDP print, the British Pound is likely to rise as traders reconsider the possibility of a 2015 BOE interest rate hike. As it stands, futures markets price in the onset of policy tightening in the first quarter of 2016. We remain short EURGBP.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade. The move tracked a pickup in Australian bond yields, pointing to firming monetary policy bets as the likely driver behind price action. Curiously, the move played out as RBA Governor Glenn Stevens explicitly declined to comment on rate-setting matters ahead of next week’s meeting, offering no apparent lead for investors to follow. The markets see a 51 percent probability of a 25 basis point reduction, according to priced-in expectations reflected in OIS rates.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Retail Trade (YoY) (MAR)

-9.7%

-7.5%

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

Retail Sales (MoM) (MAR)

-1.9%

0.6%

0.7%

23:50

JPY

Large Retailers' Sales (MAR)

-13.0%

-10.9%

1.3%

0:00

AUD

Conf. Board Leading Index (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

-

0.4%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (APR)

49.0

49.8

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Confidence (APR)

94.0

93.0

Low

8:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase (MAR)

37800

37305

Low

8:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) (1Q A)

0.5%

0.6%

High

8:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) (1Q A)

2.6%

3.0%

High

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

-0.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

Index of Services (3M/3M) (FEB)

0.7%

0.8%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0665

1.0772

1.0832

1.0879

1.0939

1.0986

1.1093

GBPUSD

1.4892

1.5047

1.5143

1.5202

1.5298

1.5357

1.5512

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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