We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Wall Street
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • The trio of central banks overseeing the commodity currencies have already cut their main rates to all-time lows. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/OSUXrN5P3j https://t.co/Cxt86jl28N
  • The Japanese Yen fell for a third consecutive week with price testing resistance into June open. Here are the levels that matter on the $USDJPY weekly technical chart. Get your #currencies market update from @MBForex here: https://t.co/1QPXP0g7Ew https://t.co/WUtXHoRoQX
  • $USDZAR: A rally from here could be an important tell as to whether the level seen as support previously (17.76) will turn into a point of resistance for sellers to lean against. Get your $USDZAR technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/TNsQ4JJu6E https://t.co/I4yCjs2ja0
  • The US dollar continued to sell-off this week and the greenback’s future will be decided by commentary from the White House and not the Federal Reserve over the coming days and weeks. Get your #currencies market update from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/lpHneO3s2h https://t.co/bZ5klohLNd
  • #Gold prices have continued to push higher as expectations have built for global Central Banks to remain very loose and passive with monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Get your $XAUUSD technical analysis from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/h5tF3kAZfd https://t.co/VAYy9FGHcQ
  • Major investment bank models have touted USD selling, given the outperformance in US equities relative to its counterparts over the past month. How is this likely to impact the month-end rebalancing? Find out from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/MtNrHmXZpD https://t.co/YvoHlUsdVr
  • U.S. Market Analyst at https://t.co/JsVsSmefgR, Shain Vernier covers - ✔️ Safe haven assets in volatile markets ✔️ Central banks and governments ✔️ How will commodities trade in a recession Only on Trading Global Markets Decoded #podcast. Tune in here: https://t.co/1UmEzEbwiy https://t.co/X15k6b4ZyB
  • The month of May saw equities rise across the board. The #Dow Jones and #DAX 30 will look to hold above nearby support while the #Nasdaq 100 may look to attack all-time highs. Get your #equities market update from @PeterHanksFX here: https://t.co/dQxkG68R0I https://t.co/cgfcOs14qG
  • There is a dramatic departure between yield curve pricing for a recession and other measures of near-term growth; the Q2’20 Atlanta Fed GDPNow is extremely alarming.Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/eMd3T8EwDO https://t.co/56oUP6we9U
  • The #DAX has now closed the gap from the beginning of March with the index breaking above 61.8% fib at 11592. Get your DAX market update from @JMcQueenFX here: https://t.co/wr67nkxc8z https://t.co/CkxPZn1v3t
Euro to Look Past IFO Data, May Rise Amid Bets on Greek Funding Deal

Euro to Look Past IFO Data, May Rise Amid Bets on Greek Funding Deal

2015-04-24 03:21:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Traders May Ignore German IFO Data on Limited ECB Expectations Impact
  • Euro May Rise on Bets Eurozone Officials to Reach Deal on Greece Funding
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Currency markets are likely to look past the release of Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence. With the ECB seemingly on auto-pilot for the time being, the outcome is unlikely to produce a significant inflection point for near-term policy expectations.

Instead, traders will focus on rhetoric emerging from a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers and central bankers due to begin in Riga. On-going negotiations between Greece and its EU/IMF creditors will be in the spotlight, with Athens to present the fourth revision of a reform package designed to unlock further bailout funding.

Both sides of the Greek fiasco seem vested in a successful accord. EU and IMF officials want to avoid setting a precedent for a sovereign default within the Eurozone that potentially leads Greece out of the currency bloc. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and company surely understand that disorderly redenomination will probably compound their country’s economic woes and may cost them their jobs.

The markets seem to agree: Greek 5-year CDS spreads and benchmark 10-year bond yields turned sharply lower earlier in the week, pointing to ebbing tail risk ahead of the Riga sit-down. Indeed, with Greece running out of cash to stave off insolvency, officials on both sides no doubt feel a sense of urgency to hammer out a deal and may prove more pliable than previously.

On balance, the announcement of an agreement that keeps Greece afloat – even if only in the near term – is likely to send the Euro higher as dissipating near-term default risk clears the way for profit-taking on elevated bets against the single currency. Indeed, the CFTC’s COT report puts net-speculative short positioning near the highest on record as of last week. We will treat a bounce as an opportunity to sell EURUSD in line with our long-term outlook in the weeks ahead.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (MAR)

3.3%

3.3%

3:00

JPY

BOJ ‘s Nakaso Speaks at SAAJ Internat Seminar

-

-

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (FEB)

-1.0%

1.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

CHF

SNB's Jordan, Studer Speak at Bern Annual Meeting

-

-

Medium

8:00

EUR

IFO Business Climate (APR)

108.4

107.9

Medium

8:00

EUR

IFO Current Assessment (APR)

112.4

112.0

Medium

8:00

EUR

IFO Expectations (APR)

104.5

103.9

Medium

-

EUR

Eurozone FinMins, Central Bankers Meet in Riga

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0419

1.0599

1.0711

1.0779

1.0891

1.0959

1.1139

GBPUSD

1.4809

1.4919

1.4988

1.5029

1.5098

1.5139

1.5249

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.