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British Pound May Rise as BOE Meeting Minutes Reboot Rate Hike Bets

British Pound May Rise as BOE Meeting Minutes Reboot Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise as BOE April Meeting Minutes Reboot Rate Hike Bets
  • Aussie Dollar Gains as Core CPI Unexpectedly Rises, Firming RBA Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The release of minutes from April’s Bank of England policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. Leading survey data shows the UK began to re-accelerate in 2015 after a protracted slowdown starting in October 2013. The rebound followed a pickup in the Eurozone, which accounts for close to half of UK export demand. Improving conditions have spilled over into inflation expectations, with the 5-year breakeven rate at a four-month high after bottoming in mid-March.

If all this translates into a hawkish tone shift in BOE rhetoric, the British Pound is likely to rise amid rebuilding rate hike speculation. As it stands, futures markets price in the first post-crisis increase in the benchmark lending rate in the first quarter of 2016. We remain short EURGBP.

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.8 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed the release of first-quarter CPI figures that showed the core year-on-year inflation rate unexpectedly rose to 2.3 percent. That marked the first increase since the second quarter of last year.

As we discussed in our weekly forecast, a break from disinflation seen in the second half of last year may delay further interest rate cuts from the RBA. Indeed, the Aussie rallied alongside a jump in front-end Australian bond yields, pointing to the outcome’s supportive impact on the monetary policy outlook.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance (¥) (MAR)

229.3B

44.6B

-425.0B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Adjusted (¥) (MAR)

3.3B

-409.3B

-573.2B

23:50

JPY

Exports (YoY) (MAR)

8.5%

8.5%

2.5%

23:50

JPY

Imports (YoY) (MAR)

-14.5%

-12.6%

-3.6%

0:30

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM)

0.4%

-

0.8%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (MAR)

-0.3%

-

0.1%

1:30

AUD

CPI (QoQ) (1Q)

0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

1:30

AUD

CPI (YoY) (1Q)

1.3%

1.3%

1.7%

1:30

AUD

CPI - Trimmed Mean (QoQ) (1Q)

0.6%

0.6%

0.7%

1:30

AUD

CPI - Trimmed Mean (YoY) (1Q)

2.3%

2.2%

2.2%

1:30

AUD

CPI - Weighted Median (QoQ) (1Q)

0.6%

0.5%

0.7%

1:30

AUD

CPI - Weighted Median (YoY) (1Q)

2.3%

2.3%

2.3%

2:00

AUD

Conference Board Leading Index (MAR)

317.6

-

317.1

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

GBP

Bank of England Minutes

-

-

High

9:00

CHF

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey Exp. (APR)

-

-37.9

Medium

9:15

EUR

Germany’s Spring Economic Forecasts

-

-

Medium

14:00

EUR

Consumer Confidence (APR A)

-2.5

-3.7

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0484

1.0605

1.0670

1.0726

1.0791

1.0847

1.0968

GBPUSD

1.4687

1.4803

1.4864

1.4919

1.4980

1.5035

1.5151

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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