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US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Lifeline, Aussie Soars on Jobs Data

US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Lifeline, Aussie Soars on Jobs Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Soars as Jobs Data Tops Forecasts, Denting RBA Rate Cut Bets
  • US Dollar Looks to Fed Commentary for a Lifeline After Two Days of Losses
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 1.1 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed sharply better than expected set of labor market figures. The economy added 37,700 jobs in March, topping estimates for a meager 15,000 increase, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to a three-month low of 6.1 percent. The Aussie’s move higher tracked a parallel surge in front-end bond yields, suggesting traders interpreted the upbeat improvement on the employment front as reducing the scope for on-coming RBA interest rate cuts.

A relatively quiet European data docket will likely see investors looking ahead to US news-flow for direction cues. “Fed-speak”is in focus, with comments from Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart of particular note considering both are currently members of the FOMC rate-setting committee. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren are likewise due to speak.

Needless to say, the timing of the first post-QE rate hike is the central question on the minds of investors. Rhetoric pointing to the lingering possibility of a mid-year move, particularly from the typically dovish Mr Lockhart, may breathe new life into the US Dollar and send the currency higher after two days of losses. Alternatively, a more timid tone points to compound selling pressure facing the greenback.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR)

-0.8%

-

0.7%

22:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (MAR)

54.5

-

56.1

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (MAR)

21%

15%

14%

1:00

AUD

Consumer Inflation Expectation (APR)

3.4%

-

3.2%

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (MAR)

0.5%

-

2.7%

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (MAR)

4.4%

-

4.0%

1:30

AUD

Employment Change (MAR)

37.7K

15.0K

42.0K

1:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (MAR)

6.1%

6.3%

6.3%

1:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (MAR)

31.5K

-

41.9K

1:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (MAR)

6.1K

-

0.1K

1:30

AUD

Participation Rate (MAR)

64.8%

64.6%

64.6%

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Government (MAR)

-1299M

-

-434M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (MAR)

1355M

-

409M

1:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (MAR)

55M

-

33M

2:00

CNY

Foreign Direct Investment (YoY) (MAR)

2.2%

1.3%

0.9%

3:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (MAR)

66.5%

-

65.7%

4:00

JPY

Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (MAR)

-4.0%

-

-2.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

EU27 New Car Registrations (MAR)

-

7.3%

Low

6:00

JPY

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAR F)

-

14.6%

Low

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAR)

0.0%

-1.4%

Medium

7:15

CHF

Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAR)

-3.7%

-3.6%

Medium

8:00

EUR

ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

Medium

8:00

EUR

Italy Trade Balance Total (FEB)

-

219M

Low

8:00

EUR

Italy Trade Balance EU (FEB)

-

452M

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0390

1.0521

1.0603

1.0652

1.0734

1.0783

1.0914

GBPUSD

1.4495

1.4647

1.4744

1.4799

1.4896

1.4951

1.5103

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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