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Euro May Rise if Draghi Hints ECB QE Could Be Cut Short

Euro May Rise if Draghi Hints ECB QE Could Be Cut Short

2015-04-15 05:48:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Rebounds, Aussie Dollar Drops on RBA Rate Cut Bets Overnight
  • Euro May Rise if ECB President Draghi Hints QE Program Can Be Cut Short
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar outperformed in overnight, rising as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective after the greenback suffered its largest drawdown in two weeks over the preceding 24 hours following a disappointing US Retail Sales report. The Australian Dollar proved weakest on the session. The move played out alongside a drop in front-end yields, pointing to building RBA rate cut expectations as a likely catalyst behind selling pressure.

A monetary policy from the European Central Bank headlines the economic calendar in the hours ahead. Officials are locked into a QE effort with defined scope (€60/month in asset purchases through September 2016), so tangible news on the policy mix is unlikely. The press conference with ECB President Mario Draghi will have market-moving potential however.

The Eurozone economy has shown some signs of life in recent months and the central bank chief will almost certainly have to field questions about the possibility that QE will be cut short if growth and inflation mend faster than expected. Rhetoric opening the door to such a possibility may be interpreted as a relative shift away from the ultra-dovish extreme on the policy outlook spectrum, boosting the Euro.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (MAR)

0.1%

-

-0.7%

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf Index (APR)

96.2

-

99.5

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Conf SA (MoM) (APR)

-3.2%

-

-1.2%

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (MAR)

10.2%

10.9%

-

2:00

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (MAR)

10.6%

10.8%

10.7%

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

5.6%

7.0%

-

2:00

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (MAR)

6.4%

6.9%

6.8%

2:00

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD (YoY) (MAR)

13.5%

13.9%

13.9%

2:00

CNY

GDP (YoY) (MAR)

7.0%

7.0%

7.3%

2:00

CNY

GDP SA (QoQ) (MAR)

1.3%

1.4%

1.5%

2:00

CNY

GDP (YoY) (MAR)

7.0%

7.0%

7.4%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production MoM (FEB F)

-3.1%

-

-3.4%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production YoY (FEB F)

-2.0%

-

-2.6%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (FEB)

-3.2%

-

3.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:00

EUR

CPI (MoM) (MAR F)

0.5%

0.5%

Low

8:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) (MAR F)

0.3%

0.3%

Low

8:00

EUR

CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR F)

0.5%

0.5%

Low

8:00

EUR

CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR F)

0.1%

0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Trade Balance SA (FEB)

22.0B

22.8B

Medium

9:00

EUR

Trade Balance NSA (FEB)

21.0B

7.9B

Medium

11:45

EUR

ECB Main Refinancing Rate

0.05%

0.05%

High

11:45

EUR

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

-0.20%

-0.20%

High

11:45

EUR

ECB Marginal Lending Facility

0.30%

0.30%

High

12:30

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Holds Press Conference

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0281

1.0456

1.0555

1.0631

1.0730

1.0806

1.0981

GBPUSD

1.4333

1.4531

1.4656

1.4729

1.4854

1.4927

1.5125

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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