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Pound, Dollar to Rise if UK CPI and US Sales Data Boost Rate Hike Bets

Pound, Dollar to Rise if UK CPI and US Sales Data Boost Rate Hike Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise if Upbeat Core CPI Figures Boost BOE Rate Outlook
  • US Dollar to Extend Advance if Retail Sales Data Drives Fed Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

UK CPI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The core year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain at 1.2 percent in March, unchanged from the prior month. UK economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks however, opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may boost Bank of England rate hike speculation and send the British Pound higher. We remain short EURGBP.

Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to the US Retail Sales report. Receipts are seen rising 1.1 percent in March, producing the largest monthly gain in a year. A strong result would come on the heels of a pickup in overall US data flow since late March and may prod investors to rethink the probabilities of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike near the mid-year mark (as it stands, the first increase in the baseline lending rate is being priced in for October by the futures markets). The US Dollar is likely to rise in this scenario, potentially overcoming a key barrier at last month’s highs.

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its major counterparts. The move tracked a move higher in benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) prices, hinting a pick-up in JPY-denominated assets may have been the catalyst behind the advance. Furthermore, selling on Asian stock exchanges may have offered a sentiment-derived boost to the safety-linked currency.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:00

NZD

NZIER Business Opinion Survey (1Q)

23

-

24

22:02

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

6.7%

-

0.8%

22:02

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

9.5%

-

6.1%

22:02

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (MAR)

20.3%

-

12.6%

23:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (MAR)

3.2%

0.5%

0.2%

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

109.8

-

109.7

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (MAR)

6

-

2

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (MAR)

3

-

0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (MAR)

-

0.5%

Low

6:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

-

-2.1%

Low

8:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Bank Lending Survey

-

-

Medium

8:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.2%

0.3%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

0.0%

0.0%

High

8:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (MAR)

1.2%

1.2%

High

8:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

0.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (MAR)

1.0%

1.0%

Medium

8:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort. Int. Payments (YoY) (MAR)

1.0%

1.0%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (MAR)

-0.4%

0.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (MAR)

-13.5%

-13.5%

Low

8:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (MAR)

0.1%

0.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (MAR)

-1.8%

-1.8%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (MAR)

0.1%

0.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (MAR)

0.1%

0.2%

Medium

8:30

GBP

ONS House Price (YoY) (FEB)

-

8.4%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

-0.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)

0.8%

1.2%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0373

1.0471

1.0519

1.0569

1.0617

1.0667

1.0765

GBPUSD

1.4411

1.4526

1.4601

1.4641

1.4716

1.4756

1.4871

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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