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Japanese Yen May Fall as China Stimulus Bets Fuel Risk Appetite

Japanese Yen May Fall as China Stimulus Bets Fuel Risk Appetite

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian, New Zealand Dollars Tumble as Chinese Trade Data Disappoints
  • Bets on China Stimulus Boost May Fuel Risk-On Sentiment, Send Yen Lower
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 1.0 and 0.86 percent on average against their leading counterparts. The selloff followed a disappointing set of Chinese Trade Balance figures that showed exports slumped 15 percent year-on-year in March, falling dramatically short of expectations calling for a 9 percent increase and yielding the largest drawdown in over a year.

China is Australia and New Zealand’s largest trading partner. A slump in the East Asian giant’s overseas sales points to ebbing demand for raw materials from the two Oceanic countries, warning of mounting headwinds to economic growth. That in turn has scope to translate into interest rate cuts from the RBA and the RBNZ. Indeed, the overnight slide in the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars played out alongside down moves on the two countries’ benchmark 2-year bond yields, pointing to building stimulus expansion bets.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European and US trading hours is likely to see risk sentiment trends in charge of price action. The Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index stock benchmarks moved conspicuously higher after the dismal Chinese trade data, hinting investors may have interpreted the outcome to mean that Beijing will see the slump as a trigger to top up stimulus measures. The prospect of expanded policy support in the world’s second-largest economy may fuel broader risk-on sentiment later in the day, trimming Aussie and Kiwi losses while applying pressure to the safety-linked Japanese Yen.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:50

NZD

Card Spending Retail (MoM) (MAR)

0.8%

0.8%

1.1%

22:50

NZD

Card Spending Total (MoM) (MAR)

1.3%

-

0.4%

23:50

JPY

BOJ March 16-17 Meeting Minutes

-

-

-

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (FEB)

-0.4%

-2.2%

-1.7%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (FEB)

5.9%

4.3%

1.9%

23:50

JPY

PPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.3%

-0.1%

-0.1%

23:50

JPY

PPI (YoY) (MAR)

0.7%

0.4%

0.4%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M2 (YoY) (MAR)

3.6%

3.6%

3.5%

23:50

JPY

Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAR)

3.0%

3.0%

2.9%

1:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (A$) (FEB)

22.1B

-

21.5B

1:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (A$) (FEB)

51.1B

-

50.1B

2:00

CNY

Trade Balance (CNY) (MAR)

18.16B

250.00B

370.50B

2:00

CNY

Exports (YoY) (CNY) (MAR)

-14.6%

8.2%

48.9%

2:00

CNY

Imports (YoY) (CNY) (MAR)

-12.3%

-11.3%

-20.1%

2:00

CNY

Trade Balance ($) (MAR)

3.08B

40.10B

60.62B

2:00

CNY

Exports (YoY) ($) (MAR)

-15.0%

9.0%

48.3%

2:00

CNY

Imports (YoY) ($) (MAR)

-12.7%

-10.0%

-20.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

EUR

France Current Account Balance (FEB)

-

-0.3B

Low

7.00

CHF

SNB Sight Deposits

-

-

Low

8:00

EUR

Italy Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

-0.7%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italy Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)

-1.3%

-2.2%

Low

8:00

EUR

Italy Industrial Production n.s.a. (YoY) (FEB)

-

-5.2%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0387

1.0503

1.0554

1.0619

1.0670

1.0735

1.0851

GBPUSD

1.4372

1.4510

1.4571

1.4648

1.4709

1.4786

1.4924

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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