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US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Direction, Canadian Dollar Pressured

US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Direction, Canadian Dollar Pressured

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Looking to Fed-Speak for Guidance Amid Fed Policy Speculation
  • Canadian Dollar Down Before Jobs Data in Otherwise Quiet Overnight Trade
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The economic calendar is quiet in European trading hours, leaving traders wait for the day’s helping of official Fed commentary to offer direction cues. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker – a member of the rate-setting FOMC committee – is due to cross the wires.

The US Dollar has made a bid to renew its long-term uptrend after the release of minutes from the March Fed policy meeting earlier this week reignited the possibility of a mid-year interest rate cut. Mr Lacker is a relatively neutral voice on the FOMC. If his remarks hint at the serious probability of “liftoff” at the June/July policy meetings, the greenback may extend yesterday’s advance.

The Canadian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming release of March Unemployment figures.

Expectations suggest the jobless rate will rise to 6.9 percent, the highest in six months, which may inspire the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary stimulus. Indeed, the Loonie’s decline since mid-2014 tracked a parallel slide in front-end bond yields, pointing to a dovish shift in policy bets as the catalyst.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
23:50JPYBank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (MAR)2.6%2.6%2.5%
23:50JPYBank Lending ex-Trusts (YoY) (MAR) 2.7%2.8%2.6%
1:30CNYCPI (YoY) (MAR)1.4%1.3%1.4%
1:30CNYPPI (YoY) (MAR)-4.6%-4.8%-4.8%
1:30AUDHome Loans (MoM) (FEB)1.2%3.0%-1.7%
1:30AUDInvestment Lending (MoM) (FEB)-3.4%--0.3%
1:30AUDOwner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (FEB)0.5%-0.7%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
5:45CHFUnemployment Rate (MAR)3.4% (A)3.5%Low
5:45CHFUnemployment Rate SA (MAR)3.2% (A)3.2%Low
8:30GBPIndustrial Production (MoM) (FEB)0.3%-0.1%Medium
8:30GBPIndustrial Production (YoY) (FEB)0.3%1.3%Medium
8:30GBPManufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)0.4%-0.5%Medium
8:30GBPManufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)1.3%1.9%Medium
8:30GBPConstruction Output SA (MoM) (FEB)2.2%-2.6%Low
8:30GBPConstruction Output SA (YoY) (FEB)1.9%-3.1%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.03931.05441.06021.06951.07531.08461.0997
GBPUSD1.43591.45601.46371.47611.48381.49621.5163

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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