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US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Direction, Canadian Dollar Pressured

US Dollar Looks to Fed-Speak for Direction, Canadian Dollar Pressured

2015-04-10 06:31:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Looking to Fed-Speak for Guidance Amid Fed Policy Speculation
  • Canadian Dollar Down Before Jobs Data in Otherwise Quiet Overnight Trade
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The economic calendar is quiet in European trading hours, leaving traders wait for the day’s helping of official Fed commentary to offer direction cues. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker – a member of the rate-setting FOMC committee – is due to cross the wires.

The US Dollar has made a bid to renew its long-term uptrend after the release of minutes from the March Fed policy meeting earlier this week reignited the possibility of a mid-year interest rate cut. Mr Lacker is a relatively neutral voice on the FOMC. If his remarks hint at the serious probability of “liftoff” at the June/July policy meetings, the greenback may extend yesterday’s advance.

The Canadian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move may reflect pre-positioning ahead of the upcoming release of March Unemployment figures.

Expectations suggest the jobless rate will rise to 6.9 percent, the highest in six months, which may inspire the Bank of Canada to deliver additional monetary stimulus. Indeed, the Loonie’s decline since mid-2014 tracked a parallel slide in front-end bond yields, pointing to a dovish shift in policy bets as the catalyst.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending incl. Trusts (YoY) (MAR)

2.6%

2.6%

2.5%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending ex-Trusts (YoY) (MAR)

2.7%

2.8%

2.6%

1:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

1.4%

1.3%

1.4%

1:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (MAR)

-4.6%

-4.8%

-4.8%

1:30

AUD

Home Loans (MoM) (FEB)

1.2%

3.0%

-1.7%

1:30

AUD

Investment Lending (MoM) (FEB)

-3.4%

-

-0.3%

1:30

AUD

Owner-Occupier Loan Value (MoM) (FEB)

0.5%

-

0.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (MAR)

3.4% (A)

3.5%

Low

5:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate SA (MAR)

3.2% (A)

3.2%

Low

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

-0.1%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (FEB)

0.3%

1.3%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (FEB)

0.4%

-0.5%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (FEB)

1.3%

1.9%

Medium

8:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (MoM) (FEB)

2.2%

-2.6%

Low

8:30

GBP

Construction Output SA (YoY) (FEB)

1.9%

-3.1%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0393

1.0544

1.0602

1.0695

1.0753

1.0846

1.0997

GBPUSD

1.4359

1.4560

1.4637

1.4761

1.4838

1.4962

1.5163

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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