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US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on FOMC Minutes

US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on FOMC Minutes

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on March FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Asian Stocks on Firming Risk Appetite
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the release of minutes from the March Federal Reserve policy meeting for direction cues. Traders will be keen for confirmation of the dovish shift in timing bets on the first post-QE rate hike. Futures markets reveal a lean toward an increase in October after Friday’s dismal payrolls data, a far cry from earlier speculation about June or July.

Signs of trepidation on the rate-setting FOMC committee are likely to weigh on the US Dollar and may boost risk appetite, offering a lift to sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars while punishing the safety-linked Japanese Yen. Alternatively, rhetoric suggesting Janet Yellen and company will look through the dip in economic activity in the first quarter – a move similar to their steadfast commitment to “tapering” QE even as growth slid in the first three months of 2014 – may generate the opposite dynamic.

The Kiwi Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move mirrored an advance on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to a swell in risk appetite as the likely catalyst hind gains.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:01

GBP

BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

-2.1%

-

-1.7%

23:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

109.7

-

112.3

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB)

1440.1B

1196.0B

61.4B

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB)

603.5B

605.0B

1058.1B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (FEB)

-143.1B

-239.9B

-864.2B

-

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base (¥)

80T

80T

3:00

JPY

BOJ Kuroda Press Conference

-

-

-

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)

50.5

50.1

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)

53.5

53.2

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) (FEB)

1.5%

-3.9%

Medium

6:00

EUR

German Factory Orders WDA (YoY) (FEB)

0.5%

-0.1%

Medium

6:45

EUR

France Trade Balance (FEB)

-3800M

-3726M

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (MAR)

0.1%

-0.3%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (MAR)

-1.1%

-0.8%

Medium

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR)

0.1%

-0.4%

Low

7:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR)

-0.9%

-0.4%

Low

7:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (MAR)

-

53.1

Medium

7:45

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)

-

-11.5%

Low

8:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)

-

12.0%

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (MAR)

-

51.5

Medium

8:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (MAR)

-

46.4

Medium

8:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (MAR)

-

43.6

Low

8:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (MAR)

-

42.3

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)

-0.2%

1.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)

2.8%

3.7%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0556

1.0707

1.0761

1.0858

1.0912

1.1009

1.1160

GBPUSD

1.4608

1.4726

1.4767

1.4844

1.4885

1.4962

1.5080

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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