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US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on FOMC Minutes

US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on FOMC Minutes

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar, Yen, Commodity FX Set Sights on March FOMC Meeting Minutes
  • New Zealand Dollar Gains Alongside Asian Stocks on Firming Risk Appetite
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A relatively quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see investors looking ahead to the release of minutes from the March Federal Reserve policy meeting for direction cues. Traders will be keen for confirmation of the dovish shift in timing bets on the first post-QE rate hike. Futures markets reveal a lean toward an increase in October after Friday’s dismal payrolls data, a far cry from earlier speculation about June or July.

Signs of trepidation on the rate-setting FOMC committee are likely to weigh on the US Dollar and may boost risk appetite, offering a lift to sentiment-sensitive Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars while punishing the safety-linked Japanese Yen. Alternatively, rhetoric suggesting Janet Yellen and company will look through the dip in economic activity in the first quarter – a move similar to their steadfast commitment to “tapering” QE even as growth slid in the first three months of 2014 – may generate the opposite dynamic.

The Kiwi Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move mirrored an advance on Asian stock exchanges, pointing to a swell in risk appetite as the likely catalyst hind gains.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
23:01GBPBRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (MAR)-2.1%--1.7%
23:30AUDANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf 109.7-112.3
23:50JPYBoP Current Account Balance (¥) (FEB)1440.1B1196.0B61.4B
23:50JPYBoP Current Account Adjusted (¥) (FEB)603.5B605.0B1058.1B
23:50JPYTrade Balance BoP Basis (FEB)-143.1B-239.9B-864.2B
-JPYBOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base (¥)80T80T
3:00JPYBOJ Kuroda Press Conference ---
5:00JPYEco Watchers Survey: Current (MAR)50.550.1
5:00JPYEco Watchers Survey: Outlook (MAR)53.553.2

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
6:00EURGerman Factory Orders (MoM) (FEB)1.5%-3.9%Medium
6:00EURGerman Factory Orders WDA (YoY) (FEB)0.5%-0.1%Medium
6:45EURFrance Trade Balance (FEB)-3800M-3726MLow
7:15CHFCPI (MoM) (MAR)0.1%-0.3%Medium
7:15CHFCPI (YoY) (MAR)-1.1%-0.8%Medium
7:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR)0.1%-0.4%Low
7:15CHFCPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR)-0.9%-0.4%Low
7:30EURMarkit Germany Construction PMI (MAR)-53.1Medium
7:45JPYBankruptcies (YoY) (MAR)--11.5%Low
8:00GBPNew Car Registrations (YoY) (MAR)-12.0%Low
8:10EURMarkit Germany Retail PMI (MAR)-51.5Medium
8:10EURMarkit Eurozone Retail PMI (MAR)-46.4Medium
8:10EURMarkit France Retail PMI (MAR)-43.6Low
8:10EURMarkit Italy Retail PMI (MAR)-42.3Low
9:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB)-0.2%1.1%Medium
9:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (FEB)2.8%3.7%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.05561.07071.07611.08581.09121.10091.1160
GBPUSD1.46081.47261.47671.48441.48851.49621.5080

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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