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US Dollar May Fall Further as Fed Rate Hike Bets Continue to Moderate

US Dollar May Fall Further as Fed Rate Hike Bets Continue to Moderate

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar May Continue to Decline on Moderating Fed Rate Hike Outlook
  • Australian, NZ Dollars Underperform as Markets Digest US Payrolls Data
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars narrowly underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, falling as much as 0.4 and 0.5 percent against their US counterpart. The moves tracked a decline in the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond yield, pointing to digestion following Friday’s disappointing US payrolls data as the catalyst behind price action.

Looking ahead, most European markets will closed for the Easter holiday, which seems likely to make for lackluster activity until Wall Street comes back online. On that front, the spotlight is likely to point to the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite data release and scheduled commentary from New York Fed President Bill Dudley.

The ISM gauge is expected to show the pace of service-sector activity growth slowed to the weakest in three months in March. For his part, Mr Dudley tends to lean on the dovish side of the policy spectrum. If his commentary compounds soft data flow in fueling bets on a longer delay in the onset of the first post-QE Fed interest rate hike, the US Dollar may come under renewed selling pressure.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (FEB P)

105.1

105.5

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (FEB P)

110.7

113.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence (APR)

20.8

18.6

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0627

1.0790

1.0880

1.0953

1.1043

1.1116

1.1279

GBPUSD

1.4624

1.4758

1.4839

1.4892

1.4973

1.5026

1.5160

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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