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Euro Focused on Merkel, Tsipras Meeting as US Dollar Eyes Fed-Speak

Euro Focused on Merkel, Tsipras Meeting as US Dollar Eyes Fed-Speak

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Rise if Signs of Breakthrough Emerge at Merkel / Tsipras Meeting
  • US Dollar Looks to “Fed-Speak” for Direction, Fischer and Williams on Tap
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

All eyes are on Berlin in European trading hours as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras meet to discuss securing a deal on the Mediterranean country’s financing deal. Increasingly aggressive saber-rattling from both countries has elevated tensions in recent weeks. Posturing aside however, both sides still appear vested in securing an accord. With that in mind, the Euro may rise if signs of a breakthrough emerge at today’s sit-down.

Later in the day, Federal Reserve monetary policy speculation will re-enter the spotlight as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and San Francisco branch President John Williams kick off a busy week of scheduled commentary. Traders notably scaled pushed out the likely timeline for rates “liftoff” following last week’s FOMC meeting, with Fed funds futures now pointing to a hike in September. Rhetoric supporting the dovish shift may weigh on the US Dollar, while clues suggesting a mid-year hike remains in the cards stand to push the greenback upward.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.7 and 1.2 percent respectively. A swell in risk appetite appeared to be behind the move. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 0.8 percent. The Swiss Franc underperformed, falling as much as 0.5 percent.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
21:00NZDWestpac Consumer Confidence (1Q)117.4-114.8
6:00JPYSupermarket Sales (YoY) (FEB)-0.8%--1.7%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
8:00CHFSNB Sight Deposits --Low
8:00CHFMoney Supply M3 (YoY) (FEB)--1.7%Low
10:00EURECB’s Coeure Speaks in Montenegro --Low
11:00GBPCBI Trends Total Orders (MAR)910Medium
11:00GBBCBI Trends Selling Prices (MAR)-8Medium
14:00EURECB’s Darghi Speaks to EU Parliament Comm.--Medium
15:00EURConsumer Confidence (MAR A)-6.0-6.7Medium
17:15EURGerman’s Merkel, Greece’s Tsipras Meet--High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.03201.05521.06871.07841.09191.10161.1248
GBPUSD1.43531.46201.47851.48871.50521.51541.5421

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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