Talking Points:
- Improving German ZEW Survey Data Unlikely to Offer Support to the Euro
- NZ Dollar Gains on Risk Appetite as Asian Stocks Follow Wall Street Higher
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The German ZEW Survey of analyst sentiment headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The forward-looking Expectations index is expected to rise to 59.4 in March, marking the fifth consecutive advance and the highest level in 14 months. An upbeat outcome will not change the ECB’s dovish posture however, and may even owe its existence to the central bank’s stimulus expansion. With that in mind, such a result is unlikely to boost the Euro.
Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to US economic data, with February’s Housing Starts and Building Permits figures on tap. The former is expected to decline for a second consecutive month, dropping 2.4 percent, while the latter produces the first increase since October 2014. US economic news-flow has increasingly disappointed relative to consensus forecasts since the start of the year, but a repeat of the pattern this time around is unlikely to yield a strong response from the US Dollar as traders await the outcome of this week’s FOMC meeting before showing directional commitment.
The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The advance tracked a rally on Asian stock exchanges, pinning a swell in risk appetite as the catalyst. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index rose 1 percent, following a positive lead from Wall Street.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22:30 | AUD | ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf | 110.8 | - | 110.3 |
| 0:30 | AUD | RBA March Meeting Minutes | - | - | - |
| 2:00 | CNY | Foreign Direct Investment CNY (YoY) (FEB) | 0.9% | - | - |
| 3:04 | JPY | BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base (¥) | 80T | 80T | 80T |
| 5:00 | JPY | Leading Index (JAN F) | 105.5 | - | 105.1 |
| 5:00 | JPY | Coincident Index (JAN F) | 113.3 | - | 113.0 |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 | EUR | EU 25 New Car Registrations (FEB) | - | 6.7% | Low |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (4Q) | - | 0.4% | Low |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone Employment (YoY) (4Q) | - | 0.6% | Low |
| 10:00 | EUR | German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAR) | 52.0 | 45.5 | High |
| 10:00 | EUR | German ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (MAR) | 59.4 | 53.0 | High |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone ZEW Survey (Econ Sentiment) (MAR) | - | 52.7 | Medium |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI (MoM) (FEB) | 0.6% | -1.6% | Medium |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI (YoY) (FEB F) | -0.3% | -0.3% | Medium |
| 10:00 | EUR | Eurozone CPI - Core (YoY) (FEB F) | 0.6% | 0.6% | Medium |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0225 | 1.0387 | 1.0477 | 1.0549 | 1.0639 | 1.0711 | 1.0873 |
| GBPUSD | 1.4565 | 1.4685 | 1.4757 | 1.4805 | 1.4877 | 1.4925 | 1.5045 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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