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US Dollar May Correct Lower as Retail Sales Data Cools Fed Outlook

US Dollar May Correct Lower as Retail Sales Data Cools Fed Outlook

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Soft Retail Sales Data May Cool Fed Rate Hike Bets, Push US Dollar Lower
  • NZ Dollar Soars on RBNZ Rate Decision, Aussie Recovers on Jobs Report
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to February’s US Retail Sales report. Consensus forecasts call for 0.3 percent increase, which would mark the strongest outcome in three months. Last week’s payrolls data notwithstanding however, US economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to expectations since late December. This warns that analysts may be overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may cool Fed rate hike speculation, weighing on the US Dollar.

The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight after the RBNZ signaled it was in no hurry to cut interest rates at its monetary policy meeting. Governor Graeme Wheeler highlighted a range of factors underpinning strong economic growth and dismissed soft inflation readings in the near term as largely reflective of the transitory impact of oil prices. Speaking directly to the benchmark lending rate, Wheeler projected “a period of stability” ahead.

The Australian Dollar likewise advanced following a narrowly better-than-expected Employment report. The figures showed the economy added a net 15,600 jobs in February, narrowly topping economists’ expectations for 15,000 increase. The unemployment rate declined to 6.3 percent having hit a 13-year high at 6.4 percent in the prior month.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
20:00NZDRBNZ Interest Rate Decision3.5%3.5%3.5%
21:45NZDFood Prices (MoM) (FEB)-0.7%-1.3%
23:50JPYBSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)1.96.05.0
23:50JPYBSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)2.4-8.1
23:50JPYTertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)1.4%0.5%0.0%
0:00AUDConsumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)3.2%-4.0%
0:01GBPRICS House Price Balance (FEB)14%6%7%
0:24NZDREINZ House Price Index (MoM) (FEB)0.8%--1.0%
0:24NZDREINZ House Sales (YoY) (FEB)12.6%-2.6%
0:24NZDREINZ House Price Index (YoY) (FEB)6.1%-7.5%
0:30AUDEmployment Change (FEB)15.6K15.0K-14.6K
0:30AUDUnemployment Rate (FEB)6.3%6.4%6.4%
0:30AUDFull Time Employment Change (FEB)10.3K--30.9K
0:30AUDPart Time Employment Change (FEB)5.3K-16.3K
0:30AUDParticipation Rate (FEB)64.6%64.8%64.7%
0:30AUDCredit Card Balances (JAN)A$50.1B-A$51.3B
0:30AUDCredit Card Purchases (JAN)A$21.5B-A$27.0B
2:00JPYTokyo Avg Office Vacancies (FEB)5.31-5.36
5:00JPYConsumer Confidence Index (FEB)40.7-39.1

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXPPREVIMPACT
7:00EURGerman CPI (MoM) (FEB F)0.9%0.9%Medium
7:00EURGerman CPI (YoY) (FEB F)0.1%0.1%Medium
7:00EURGerman CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)1.0%1.0%Low
7:00EURGerman CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB F)-0.1%-0.1%Low
9:30GBPTrade Balance Non EU (£) (JAN)-3400M-3796MLow
9:30GBPTotal Trade Balance (£) (JAN)-2300M-2895MLow
9:30GBPVisible Trade Balance (£) (JAN)-9650M -10154MLow
10:00EUREurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)0.2%0.0%Low
10:00EUREurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)0.1%-0.2%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.01801.03861.04661.05921.06721.07981.1004
GBPUSD1.45651.47691.48501.49731.50541.51771.5381

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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