US Dollar May Correct Lower as Retail Sales Data Cools Fed Outlook
- Soft Retail Sales Data May Cool Fed Rate Hike Bets, Push US Dollar Lower
- NZ Dollar Soars on RBNZ Rate Decision, Aussie Recovers on Jobs Report
- See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App
A quiet economic calendar in European trading hours is likely to see traders looking ahead to February’s US Retail Sales report. Consensus forecasts call for 0.3 percent increase, which would mark the strongest outcome in three months. Last week’s payrolls data notwithstanding however, US economic news-flow has tended to underperform relative to expectations since late December. This warns that analysts may be overestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may cool Fed rate hike speculation, weighing on the US Dollar.
The New Zealand Dollar outperformed in overnight after the RBNZ signaled it was in no hurry to cut interest rates at its monetary policy meeting. Governor Graeme Wheeler highlighted a range of factors underpinning strong economic growth and dismissed soft inflation readings in the near term as largely reflective of the transitory impact of oil prices. Speaking directly to the benchmark lending rate, Wheeler projected “a period of stability” ahead.
The Australian Dollar likewise advanced following a narrowly better-than-expected Employment report. The figures showed the economy added a net 15,600 jobs in February, narrowly topping economists’ expectations for 15,000 increase. The unemployment rate declined to 6.3 percent having hit a 13-year high at 6.4 percent in the prior month.
New to FX? START HERE !
|20:00||NZD||RBNZ Interest Rate Decision||3.5%||3.5%||3.5%|
|21:45||NZD||Food Prices (MoM) (FEB)||-0.7%||-||1.3%|
|23:50||JPY||BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (1Q)||1.9||6.0||5.0|
|23:50||JPY||BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (1Q)||2.4||-||8.1|
|23:50||JPY||Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (JAN)||1.4%||0.5%||0.0%|
|0:00||AUD||Consumer Inflation Expectation (MAR)||3.2%||-||4.0%|
|0:01||GBP||RICS House Price Balance (FEB)||14%||6%||7%|
|0:24||NZD||REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (FEB)||0.8%||-||-1.0%|
|0:24||NZD||REINZ House Sales (YoY) (FEB)||12.6%||-||2.6%|
|0:24||NZD||REINZ House Price Index (YoY) (FEB)||6.1%||-||7.5%|
|0:30||AUD||Employment Change (FEB)||15.6K||15.0K||-14.6K|
|0:30||AUD||Unemployment Rate (FEB)||6.3%||6.4%||6.4%|
|0:30||AUD||Full Time Employment Change (FEB)||10.3K||-||-30.9K|
|0:30||AUD||Part Time Employment Change (FEB)||5.3K||-||16.3K|
|0:30||AUD||Participation Rate (FEB)||64.6%||64.8%||64.7%|
|0:30||AUD||Credit Card Balances (JAN)||A$50.1B||-||A$51.3B|
|0:30||AUD||Credit Card Purchases (JAN)||A$21.5B||-||A$27.0B|
|2:00||JPY||Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies (FEB)||5.31||-||5.36|
|5:00||JPY||Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)||40.7||-||39.1|
|7:00||EUR||German CPI (MoM) (FEB F)||0.9%||0.9%||Medium|
|7:00||EUR||German CPI (YoY) (FEB F)||0.1%||0.1%||Medium|
|7:00||EUR||German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (FEB F)||1.0%||1.0%||Low|
|7:00||EUR||German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (FEB F)||-0.1%||-0.1%||Low|
|9:30||GBP||Trade Balance Non EU (£) (JAN)||-3400M||-3796M||Low|
|9:30||GBP||Total Trade Balance (£) (JAN)||-2300M||-2895M||Low|
|9:30||GBP||Visible Trade Balance (£) (JAN)||-9650M||-10154M||Low|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (JAN)||0.2%||0.0%||Low|
|10:00||EUR||Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (JAN)||0.1%||-0.2%||Low|
|CCY||Supp 3||Supp 2||Supp 1||Pivot Point||Res 1||Res 2||Res 3|
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE
Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.