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US Dollar Gains on Fed Outlook, Pound Looks to Carney for Lifeline

US Dollar Gains on Fed Outlook, Pound Looks to Carney for Lifeline

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Soars on Fed Rate Outlook, Aussie and NZ Dollars Underperform
  • British Pound Might Find Support as BOE’s Carney Drives Tightening Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar resumed pushing higher in overnight trade, adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. Firming interest rate hike expectations appeared to be behind the move. Fed Funds futures rose to hint the FOMC may deliver as many as two increases in the target range for the baseline lending rate by year-end. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars bore the brunt of the greenback’s advance, sinking as much as 0.9 and 1.1 percent respectively.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours. EU finance ministers are scheduled to hold a meeting in Brussels, with Greek funding issues likely to loom large once again. The emergence of anything concrete beyond yesterday’s inconclusive Eurogroup sit-down seems unlikely. Athens is due to begin negations with the so-called “institutions” (EU, ECB, IMF) on Wednesday and a breakthrough before then is probably too much to hope for.

Later in the day, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to testify before the House of Lords’ economic affairs committee. If the outing follows the template set by Mr Carney’s recent Parliamentary appearances explaining February’s quarterly Inflation Report, a mildly hawkish tone is to be expected. That could help rekindle BOE rate hike speculation, offering a lift to the British Pound.


Asia Session

21:00NZDANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (FEB)-1.3%-0.8%
21:45NZDCard Spending Retail (MoM) (FEB)1.0%0.4%-0.3%
21:45NZDCard Spending Total (MoM) (FEB)0.4%-0.1%
22:30AUDANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf110.3-112.5
23:50JPYJapan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (FEB)3.5%3.5%3.4%
23:50JPYJapan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (FEB)2.9%2.9%2.8%
0:01GBPBRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (FEB)0.2%0.5%0.2%
0:30AUDNAB Business Confidence (FEB)0-3
0:30AUDNAB Business Conditions (FEB)2-2
1:30CNYConsumer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)1.4%1.0%0.8%
1:30CNYProducer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)-4.8%-4.3%-4.3%
6:00JPYMachine Tool Orders (YoY) (FEB P)-20.4%

European Session

6:45CHFUnemployment Rate s.a. (FEB)3.2%3.1%Low
6:45CHFUnemployment Rate (FEB)3.5%3.5%Low
10:00EUREU Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels--Medium
17:30GBPBOE’s Carney Testifies at House of Lords--Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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