Talking Points:
- Euro Vulnerable to Deeper Losses as “Grexit” Worries Emerge Once Again
- US Dollar May Rise if Hawkish Fed-Speak Boosts Interest Rate Hike Outlook
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The US Dollar underperformed to start the trading week, falling as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective after the benchmark unit soared to the highest level in 11 years last week in the aftermath of February’s payrolls data. The Euro led the way higher against the greenback having been the hardest-hit on Friday.
The single currency may swiftly come under renewed selling pressure however as Greece returns to the spotlight. Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels to discuss the beleaguered country’s funding after a list of reforms proposed by Athens in exchange for bailout cash was rejected. Signs of renewed deadlock following the sit-down may reboot “Grexit” fears, rekindling Euro selling pressure.
“Fed-speak” comes into focus later in the day, with the President of the US central bank’s Cleveland branch Loretta Mester due to discuss the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. While not currently on the FOMC, Mester was a voter in 2014 and so seems likely to be well-versed in the latest thinking on the rate-settingcommittee. She is also firmly on the hawkish side of the spectrum, meaning her comments may reboot the USD advance if they portend a sooner start to stimulus withdrawal.
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Asia Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | ACT | EXP | PREV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2:51 | CNY | Trade Balance (FEB) | $60.62B | $6.00B | $60.03B |
| 2:51 | CNY | Imports (YoY) (FEB) | -20.5% | -10.0% | -19.7% |
| 2:51 | CNY | Exports (YoY) (FEB) | 48.3% | 14.0% | -3.2% |
| 21:45 | NZD | Manufacturing Activity (QoQ) (4Q) | -0.7% | - | -1.1% |
| 21:45 | NZD | Manufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (4Q) | 0.9% | - | 0.5% |
| 23:50 | JPY | GDP (QoQ) (4Q F) | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% |
| 23:50 | JPY | GDP Annualized (QoQ) (4Q F) | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Nominal GDP (QoQ) (4Q F) | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| 23:50 | JPY | GDP Deflator (YoY) (4Q F) | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 23:50 | JPY | GDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (4Q F) | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 23:50 | JPY | GDP Business Spending (QoQ) (4Q F) | -0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Current Account Total (ÂĄ) (JAN) | 61.4B | 270.4B | 187.2B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Adjusted Current Account Total (ÂĄ) (JAN) | 1058.1B | 117.6B | 852.8B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Trade Balance - BOP Basis (ÂĄ) (JAN) | -864.2B | -936.0B | -395.6B |
| 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB) | 2.5% | - | 2.5% |
| 23:50 | JPY | Bank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB) | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
| 0:30 | AUD | ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB) | 0.9% | - | 1.2% |
| 4:30 | JPY | Bankruptcies (YoY) (FEB) | -11.50% | - | -16.55% |
| 5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB) | 53.2 | 50.4 | 50.0 |
| 5:00 | JPY | Eco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB) | 50.1 | 46.5 | 45.6 |
European Session
| GMT | CCY | EVENT | EXP/ACT | PREV | IMPACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 | EUR | German Trade Balance (€) (JAN) | 15.9B (A) | 18.9B | Low |
| 7:00 | EUR | German Current Account (€) (JAN) | 16.8B (A) | 25.6B | Low |
| 7:00 | EUR | German Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) | -0.3% (A) | -0.7% | Low |
| 7:00 | EUR | German Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN) | -2.1% (A) | 2.8% | Low |
| 8:00 | CHF | SNB Sight Deposits | - | - | Low |
| 8:30 | EUR | Eurozone FinMins Meet in Brussels | - | - | High |
| 9:30 | EUR | Eurozone Sentix Investor Conf (MAR) | 18.6 (A) | 12.4 | Low |
Critical Levels
| CCY | Supp 3 | Supp 2 | Supp 1 | Pivot Point | Res 1 | Res 2 | Res 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EURUSD | 1.0520 | 1.0713 | 1.0778 | 1.0906 | 1.0971 | 1.1099 | 1.1292 |
| GBPUSD | 1.4660 | 1.4884 | 1.4961 | 1.5108 | 1.5185 | 1.5332 | 1.5556 |
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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