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Euro at Risk as Greece Jitters Return, US Dollar May Rise on Fed-Speak

Euro at Risk as Greece Jitters Return, US Dollar May Rise on Fed-Speak

Talking Points:

  • Euro Vulnerable to Deeper Losses as “Grexit” Worries Emerge Once Again
  • US Dollar May Rise if Hawkish Fed-Speak Boosts Interest Rate Hike Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar underperformed to start the trading week, falling as much as 0.3 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move appeared corrective after the benchmark unit soared to the highest level in 11 years last week in the aftermath of February’s payrolls data. The Euro led the way higher against the greenback having been the hardest-hit on Friday.

The single currency may swiftly come under renewed selling pressure however as Greece returns to the spotlight. Eurozone finance ministers are due to meet in Brussels to discuss the beleaguered country’s funding after a list of reforms proposed by Athens in exchange for bailout cash was rejected. Signs of renewed deadlock following the sit-down may reboot “Grexit” fears, rekindling Euro selling pressure.

“Fed-speak” comes into focus later in the day, with the President of the US central bank’s Cleveland branch Loretta Mester due to discuss the outlook for the economy and monetary policy. While not currently on the FOMC, Mester was a voter in 2014 and so seems likely to be well-versed in the latest thinking on the rate-settingcommittee. She is also firmly on the hawkish side of the spectrum, meaning her comments may reboot the USD advance if they portend a sooner start to stimulus withdrawal.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
2:51CNYTrade Balance (FEB)$60.62B$6.00B$60.03B
2:51CNYImports (YoY) (FEB)-20.5%-10.0%-19.7%
2:51CNYExports (YoY) (FEB)48.3%14.0%-3.2%
21:45NZDManufacturing Activity (QoQ) (4Q)-0.7%--1.1%
21:45NZDManufacturing Activity Volume (QoQ) (4Q)0.9%-0.5%
23:50JPYGDP (QoQ) (4Q F)0.4%0.5%0.6%
23:50JPYGDP Annualized (QoQ) (4Q F)1.5%2.2%2.2%
23:50JPYNominal GDP (QoQ) (4Q F)1.0%1.1%1.1%
23:50JPYGDP Deflator (YoY) (4Q F)2.4%2.3%2.3%
23:50JPYGDP Private Consumption (QoQ) (4Q F)0.5%0.3%0.3%
23:50JPYGDP Business Spending (QoQ) (4Q F)-0.1%0.2%0.1%
23:50JPYCurrent Account Total (¥) (JAN)61.4B270.4B187.2B
23:50JPYAdjusted Current Account Total (¥) (JAN)1058.1B117.6B852.8B
23:50JPYTrade Balance - BOP Basis (¥) (JAN)-864.2B-936.0B-395.6B
23:50JPYBank Lending incl Trusts (YoY) (FEB)2.5%-2.5%
23:50JPYBank Lending Banks ex-Trust (FEB)2.6%2.6%2.6%
0:30AUDANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (FEB)0.9%-1.2%
4:30JPYBankruptcies (YoY) (FEB)-11.50%--16.55%
5:00JPYEco Watchers Survey: Outlook (FEB)53.250.450.0
5:00JPYEco Watchers Survey: Current (FEB)50.146.545.6

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
7:00EURGerman Trade Balance (€) (JAN)15.9B (A)18.9BLow
7:00EURGerman Current Account (€) (JAN)16.8B (A)25.6BLow
7:00EURGerman Imports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)-0.3% (A)-0.7%Low
7:00EURGerman Exports s.a. (MoM) (JAN)-2.1% (A)2.8%Low
8:00CHFSNB Sight Deposits--Low
8:30EUREurozone FinMins Meet in Brussels--High
9:30EUREurozone Sentix Investor Conf (MAR)18.6 (A)12.4Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.05201.07131.07781.09061.09711.10991.1292
GBPUSD1.46601.48841.49611.51081.51851.53321.5556

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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