News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Update on #Cryptocurrencies #BITCOIN +0.29% #BITCOINCASH +0.02% #ETHEREUM +0.51% #RIPPLE +3.72% #LITECOIN +2.19%
  • It took some time for USD/MXN to respond to weakness in equity markets, but this week it came to life as U.S. weakness spread across global markets. Get your $USDMXN technical analysis from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/G8b6w1wCzH https://t.co/zEtpARMkMg
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.38%, while traders in EUR/GBP are at opposite extremes with 65.20%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/WGk95Bnjx5
  • Commodities Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: -0.45% Oil - US Crude: -0.63% Silver: -1.11% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/RvLy6xA9Is
  • Forex Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.15% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.22% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.32% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.38% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.43% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/MZIiNOFxXu
  • Hey traders! Wrap up your week with a market update from @DailyFX Chief Strategist @JohnKicklighter 👇 https://t.co/DHufbBKbDu
  • Canadian PM Trudeau says Canada purchasing 20 million vaccine doses from Astrazeneca -BBG
  • Indices Update: As of 16:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.26% France 40: 0.03% Wall Street: 0.02% FTSE 100: -0.06% Germany 30: -0.06% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/jByk8LUAt6
  • UK Government Official says either outcome is possible on Brexit
  • UK Government Official says if gaps in fisheries and level playing field are bridged, the EU's more constructive attitude will need to be translated into more realistic positions in the days to come
Euro May Rise as ECB Policy Announcement Triggers Profit-Taking

Euro May Rise as ECB Policy Announcement Triggers Profit-Taking

2015-03-05 05:05:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
Share:

Talking Points:

  • Euro May Bounce as Status-Quo ECB Announcement Triggers Profit-Taking
  • Bank of England Rate Decision May Amount to Non-Event for British Pound
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Monetary policy announcements from the Bank of England and the European Central Bank headline the economic calendar in the hours ahead. While the former may prove to be a non-event – leaving the British Pound rudderless in the near term – the latter has scope to trigger a response from the Euro despite the absence of materially new policy updates.

BOE officials have signaled they are in wait-and-see mode until the transitory pressure from lower oil prices on headline inflation eases, allowing space for the start of stimulus withdrawal. That points to a status-quo outcome this time around, meaning the central bank probably won’t issue a statement and leave traders to wait for the release of minutes from the sit-down for further guidance.

Turning to the ECB, the introduction of anything particularly novel seems likewise unlikely. The central bank has already announced its intent to launch QE at a pace of €60 billion/month and run the program through mid-2016. Any material changes to the effort will probably have to wait until after at least a few months pass and its efficacy can be preliminarily evaluated.

The passage of key event risk can be market-moving in its own right however, even without the emergence of anything that profoundly changes the fundamental landscape. Indeed, the release of the BOE’s quarterly inflation report last month was just such an instance: Mark Carney and company reminded investors that their desire to raise rates has not changed, revealing that the markets overshot in scaling back tightening bets since mid-2014 and driving Sterling higher.

In the case of the ECB, the absence of anything new in the policy announcement may highlight a lack of fresh fodder to fuel near-term selling pressure. The Euro has been falling alongside front-end bond yields since early May 2014 as trades priced in on-coming easing, putting speculative net-short positioning near the highest on record. In the meantime, the threat of imminent “Grexit” came and went. If investors don’t find another reason to build short positions, they may just begin to take profits on existing anti-EUR bets and send the single currency higher.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

0.4%

0.4%

0.2%

0:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (JAN)

-980M

-925M

-503M

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (JAN)

-1.0%

4.2%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (JAN)

2.6%

3.4%

Medium

7:00

GBP

Halifax House Prices (MoM) (FEB)

-0.2%

2.0%

Medium

7:00

GBP

Halifax House Prices (3M/Y) (FEB)

8.5%

8.5%

Medium

8:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (FEB)

-

49.5

Low

9:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (FEB)

-

6.7%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.0%

0.0%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q F)

-0.3%

-0.3%

Low

9:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (FEB)

-

44.0

Low

9:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (FEB)

-

41.2

Low

9:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (FEB)

-

46.6

Medium

9:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (FEB)

-

52.3

Medium

12:00

GBP

Bank of England Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

High

12:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target

375B

375B

High

12:45

EUR

European Central Bank Rate Decision

0.05%

0.05%

High

12:45

EUR

ECB Deposit Facility Rate

-0.20%

-0.20%

Medium

12:45

EUR

ECB Marginal Lending Facility

0.30%

0.30%

Medium

13:30

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Holds Press Conference

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.0861

1.0985

1.1032

1.1109

1.1156

1.1233

1.1357

GBPUSD

1.5056

1.5176

1.5221

1.5296

1.5341

1.5416

1.5536

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES