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US Dollar May Overlook ADP and ISM, Wait for Payrolls to Trigger Break

US Dollar May Overlook ADP and ISM, Wait for Payrolls to Trigger Break

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Follow-Through on ADP, ISM Data Outcomes May Prove Limited
  • British Pound May Ignore Upside Surprise on UK Service-Sector PMI Data
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European hours. February’s UK Services PMI reading headlines the docket, with expectations pointing to a slight acceleration in sector activity growth. An upside surprise may be in the cards considering UK news-flow has tended to outperform relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks. That may not mean much for the British Pound however. Indeed, prices broadly similar outcomes on Manufacturing and Construction PMIs earlier in the week.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to a busy US data docket. The ADP Employment report is expected to show a 219,000 increase in payrolls in February, marking a narrow improvement from the 213,000 gain in the prior month. Separately, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge is forecast to reflect a narrow slowdown in service-sector activity. Finally, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions.

Broadly speaking, realized US data outcomes have increasingly underperformed relative to expected results since late January. That suggests analysts continue to overestimate the vigor of the world’s largest economy and opens the door for further disappointments. Such results may pour cold water on Fed rate hike speculation and weigh on the US Dollar. Follow-through may be limited however as investors wait for the release of Friday’s much-anticipated US Employment report before showing directional commitment.

Currency markets were locked in consolidation mode overnight, with most of the majors oscillating nearly flat on the session. The Japanese Yen narrowly outperformed, adding as much as 0.2 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move tracked a decline on the benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind the advance of the safety-linked currency.


Asia Session

21:45NZDValue of All Buildings (QoQ) (4Q)0.3%1.0%1.1%
22:30AUDAiG Performance of Service Index (FEB)51.7-49.9
0:01GBPBRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (FEB)-1.7%-1.2%-1.3%
0:30AUDGDP (QoQ) (4Q)0.5%0.6%0.4%
0:30AUDGDP (YoY) (4Q)2.5%2.5%2.7%
1:35JPYMarkit/JMMA Composite PMI (FEB)50.0-51.7
1:35JPYMarkit Services PMI (FEB)48.5-51.3

European Session

8:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI (FEB)51.451.2Low
8:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Services PMI (FEB)51.451.2Low
8:50EURMarkit France Composite PMI (FEB F)52.152.2 Low
8:50EURMarkit France Services PMI (FEB F)53.453.4Low
8:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Composite PMI (FEB F)51.451.2Low
8:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Services PMI (FEB F)55.555.5Low
9:00EURMarkit Eurozone Composite PMI (FEB F)53.553.5Low
9:00EURMarkit Eurozone Services PMI (FEB F)53.953.9Low
9:30GBPMarkit/CIPS Composite PMI (FEB)-56.7Medium
9:30GBPMarkit/CIPS Services PMI (FEB)57.557.2Medium
9:30GBPOfficial Reserves Changes (FEB)--$80MLow
10:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (YoY) (JAN)2.3%2.8%Low
10:00EUREurozone Retail Sales (MoM) (JAN)0.2%0.3%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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