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Euro to Look Past Inflation Data, US Dollar May Fall on Soft ISM Print

Euro to Look Past Inflation Data, US Dollar May Fall on Soft ISM Print

2015-03-02 07:14:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Euro to Look Past CPI Data as Markets Await Launch of ECB QE Program
  • US Dollar May Decline if Soft ISM Data Undermines Fed Rate Hike Outlook
  • Canadian Dollar Gains, Aussie Drops Before BOC and RBA Policy Meetings

Eurozone flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.5 percent drawdown in February following a 0.6 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE this month.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to February’sISM Manufacturingfigures. The report is expected to show that factory-sector activity growth slowed for a fourth consecutive month. US news-flow has tended to underperform relative to forecasts in recent months, warning of a larger mark-down in the cards. Such a result may trim Fed interest rate hike expectations and weigh on the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move may have reflected pre-positioning ahead of this week’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement. Expectations call for officials to hold rates unchanged at 0.75 percent after a surprise 25bps cut at last month’s sit-down. A similarly preemptive logic may have been at play as the Australian Dollar faced selling pressure, with the RBA expected to expand stimulus this week.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

1:00

CNY

Mfg PMI (FEB)

49.9

49.7

49.8

1:00

CNY

Non-Mfg PMI (FEB)

53.9

-

53.7

21:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (4Q)

-1.9%

-3.0%

-4.5%

22:00

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (FEB)

45.4

-

49

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

-

1.3%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM)(FEB)

0.0%

-

0.1%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (FEB)

1.3%

-

1.5%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (YoY) (4Q)

2.8%

4.0%

5.5%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending Ex Software (4Q)

3.9%

5.0%

5.6%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (4Q)

11.6%

-

7.6%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (4Q)

2.4%

-

2.9%

0:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)

1.8%

-

-1.9%

0:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.2%

0.5%

-0.4%

0:30

AUD

Inventories SA (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.8%

0.1%

1.2%

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Japan Mfg PMI (FEB F)

51.6

-

51.5

1:45

CNY

HSBC China Mfg PMI (FEB F)

50.7

50.1

50.1

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)

-

-18.9%

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index (FEB)

-

87.3

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (FEB)

-

-20.4%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price (MoM) (FEB)

0.3%

0.3%

Low

7:00

GBP

Nationwide House Price NSA (YoY) (FEB)

6.2%

6.8%

Low

8:00

CHF

SNB Sight Deposits

-

-

Low

8:30

CHF

procure.ch PMI Mfg (FEB)

47.3

48.2

Medium

8:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (FEB)

47.3

48.2

Low

8:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (FEB F)

50.1

49.9

Low

8:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Manfg PMI (FEB F)

47.7

47.7

Low

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (FEB F)

50.9

50.9

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy Unemployment Rate (JAN P)

12.9%

12.9%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy Unemployment Rate (4Q)

12.9%

12.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (JAN)

0.9B

0.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)

1.7B

1.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (JAN)

61.0K

60.3K

Medium

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)

-

0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)

-

-1.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)

-

5.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

Markit UK PMI Mfg SA (FEB)

53.3

53

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JAN)

11.4%

11.4%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (FEB)

-0.5%

-0.6%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (FEB A)

0.6%

0.6%

High

10:00

EUR

Italy GDP Annual (YoY) (2014)

-0.4%

-1.9%

Low

10:00

EUR

Italy Deficit to GDP (2014)

-

2.8%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1068

1.1137

1.1166

1.1206

1.1235

1.1275

1.1344

GBPUSD

1.5277

1.5352

1.5395

1.5427

1.5470

1.5502

1.5577

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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