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Euro to Look Past Inflation Data, US Dollar May Fall on Soft ISM Print

Euro to Look Past Inflation Data, US Dollar May Fall on Soft ISM Print

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • Euro to Look Past CPI Data as Markets Await Launch of ECB QE Program
  • US Dollar May Decline if Soft ISM Data Undermines Fed Rate Hike Outlook
  • Canadian Dollar Gains, Aussie Drops Before BOC and RBA Policy Meetings

Eurozone flash CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to remain in negative territory, showing a 0.5 percent drawdown in February following a 0.6 percent decline in the prior month. The outcome is unlikely to trigger a meaningful response the Euro considering its limited implications for near-term ECB policy outlook as the central bank prepares to launch QE this month.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to February’sISM Manufacturingfigures. The report is expected to show that factory-sector activity growth slowed for a fourth consecutive month. US news-flow has tended to underperform relative to forecasts in recent months, warning of a larger mark-down in the cards. Such a result may trim Fed interest rate hike expectations and weigh on the US Dollar.

The Canadian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move may have reflected pre-positioning ahead of this week’s Bank of Canada monetary policy announcement. Expectations call for officials to hold rates unchanged at 0.75 percent after a surprise 25bps cut at last month’s sit-down. A similarly preemptive logic may have been at play as the Australian Dollar faced selling pressure, with the RBA expected to expand stimulus this week.


Asia Session

1:00CNYMfg PMI (FEB)49.949.749.8
1:00CNYNon-Mfg PMI (FEB)53.9-53.7
21:45NZDTerms of Trade Index (QoQ) (4Q)-1.9%-3.0%-4.5%
22:00AUDAiG Perf of Mfg Index (FEB)45.4-49
23:00AUDCoreLogic RP Data House Px (MoM) (FEB)0.3%-1.3%
23:30AUDTD Securities Inflation (MoM)(FEB)0.0%-0.1%
23:30AUDTD Securities Inflation (YoY) (FEB)1.3%-1.5%
23:50JPYCapital Spending (YoY) (4Q)2.8%4.0%5.5%
23:50JPYCapital Spending Ex Software (4Q)3.9%5.0%5.6%
23:50JPYCompany Profits (4Q)11.6%-7.6%
23:50JPYCompany Sales (4Q)2.4%-2.9%
0:00AUDHIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JAN)1.8%--1.9%
0:30AUDCompany Operating Profit (QoQ) (4Q)-0.2%0.5%-0.4%
0:30AUDInventories SA (QoQ) (4Q)-0.8%0.1%1.2%
1:35JPYMarkit/JMMA Japan Mfg PMI (FEB F)51.6-51.5
1:45CNYHSBC China Mfg PMI (FEB F)50.750.150.1
5:00JPYVehicle Sales (YoY) (FEB)--18.9%
5:30AUDCommodity Index (FEB)-87.3
5:30AUDCommodity Index (YoY) (FEB)--20.4%

European Session

7:00GBPNationwide House Price (MoM) (FEB)0.3%0.3%Low
7:00GBPNationwide House Price NSA (YoY) (FEB)6.2%6.8%Low
8:00CHFSNB Sight Deposits--Low PMI Mfg (FEB)47.348.2Medium
8:45EURMarkit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (FEB)47.348.2Low
8:50EURMarkit France Mfg PMI (FEB F)50.149.9Low
8:55EURMarkit/BME Germany Manfg PMI (FEB F) 47.747.7Low
9:00EURMarkit Eurozone Mfg PMI (FEB F)50.950.9Low
9:00EURItaly Unemployment Rate (JAN P)12.9%12.9%Low
9:00EURItaly Unemployment Rate (4Q)12.9%12.8%Low
9:30GBPNet Consumer Credit (JAN)0.9B0.6BLow
9:30GBPNet Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JAN)1.7B1.6BLow
9:30GBPMortgage Approvals (JAN)61.0K60.3KMedium
9:30GBPM4 Money Supply (MoM) (JAN)-0.1%Low
9:30GBPM4 Money Supply (YoY) (JAN)--1.1%Low
9:30GBPM4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JAN)-5.0%Low
9:30GBPMarkit UK PMI Mfg SA (FEB)53.353Medium
10:00EUREurozone Unemployment Rate (JAN)11.4%11.4%Medium
10:00EUREurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (FEB)-0.5%-0.6%High
10:00EUREurozone CPI Core (YoY) (FEB A)0.6%0.6%High
10:00EURItaly GDP Annual (YoY) (2014)-0.4%-1.9%Low
10:00EURItaly Deficit to GDP (2014)-2.8%Low

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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