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  • The US Dollar could lose some ground against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar and Thai Baht amid slowing Emerging Asia Covid case growth. Softer US NFPs may also bode well.Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/jnJ80hQR4P https://t.co/n8UXm0mUeb
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  • 🇦🇺 Markit Services PMI Final (JUL) Actual: 44.2 Previous: 56.8 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • $AUDNZD likely to attempt closing at a new 2021 low over the remaining 24 hours following the stellar New Zealand jobs report The December 2020 low has been further exposed at 1.0418 since July's #RBNZ rate decision New Zealand bond yields on the rise https://t.co/ipjwkSNt9n https://t.co/ncQX4hL8G3
  • Strong jobs report lifts $NZD - Money markets pricing in a 93% probability of a 25bps hike at the August meeting (previously 77%) - Over the forecast horizon, the RBNZ had projected (in the May MPS) the unemployment rate to gradually fall to 4.3% https://t.co/G5Ejzl2H6L
  • #NZDUSD cautiously higher after solid New Zealand jobs report Unemployment rate declined to 4.0% in Q2 from 4.7% prior (vs 4.4% anticipated) Job gains were at 1.7% y/y vs 1.2% expected Data seems to be supporting the case for a less-dovish #RBNZ given the cease to QE recently https://t.co/XmzhuLXh1H
  • 🇳🇿 Unemployment Rate (Q2) Actual: 4% Expected: 4.5% Previous: 4.7% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Rise on Chinese PMI Data and Risk Appetite

Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Rise on Chinese PMI Data and Risk Appetite

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Aussie, Kiwi Dollars Rise on Swelling Risk Appetite and Chinese PMI Report
  • US Dollar May Fall if Second Day of Yellen Testimony Dents Rates Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 and 0.4 percent, as stocks advanced in Asian trade and drove demand for the sentiment-linked currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 0.3 percent, following an ascent on Wall Street. The news-wires pinned the move as a response to testimony from Fed Chair Janet Yellen earlier in the day, suggesting investors took solace in the central bank chief’s view that baseline borrowing costs won’t rise for the next “couple of [FOMC] meetings”.

Upbeat Chinese economic data offered the Aussie and the Kiwi an added boost: the HSBC Manufacturing PMI gauge unexpectedly rose to 50.1 in February, showing factory sector activity grew for the first time in four months. China is Australia and New Zealand’s largest trading partner (aside from each other), so a pickup in performance there is often seen as boosting the two Oceanic countries’ growth prospects. That in turn limits the perceived scope for RBA and RBNZ rate cuts, driving the currencies upward.

The economic calendar is relatively quiet in European trading hours, with investors likely to look ahead toward another round of testimony from Chair Yellen for direction cues. Having spoken to members of the US Senate yesterday, she will now go through the same exercise with an analogous group of officials in the House of Representatives. While Yellen’s prepared remarks are likely to remain unchanged, investors will keenly monitor the Q&A portion of the outing for any new insights. Rhetoric fueling speculation about a protracted delay in starting to tighten monetary policy is likely to weigh on the US Dollar.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

23:40

NZD

RBNZ’s Wheeler at Finance Select Committee

-

-

-

0:00

AUD

Skilled Vacancies (MoM) (JAN)

0.7%

-

0.4%

0:30

AUD

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.2%

-1.0%

-2.8%

0:30

AUD

Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

0.6%

0.6%

0:30

AUD

Wage Cost Index (YoY) (4Q)

2.5%

2.5%

2.6%

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (FEB P)

50.1

49.5

49.7

1:45

CNY

Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (FEB)

112.0

-

112.1

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

UBS Consumption Indicator (JAN)

-

1.42

Low

7:45

CHF

French Consumer Confidence (FEB)

91

90

Low

9:30

GBP

BBA Loans for House Purchase

36000

35667

Low

10:00

GBP

BOE’s Carney, Deputy Governors Speak

-

-

Medium

16:30

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Testifies to EU Parliament

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1191

1.1260

1.1300

1.1329

1.1369

1.1398

1.1467

GBPUSD

1.5299

1.5371

1.5413

1.5443

1.5485

1.5515

1.5587

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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