News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.56% Oil - US Crude: -0.11% Gold: -0.19% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/ZNNdqAFGoX
  • US Senator Schumer: Senate will finish infrastructure and budget bills before August recess $USD $DXY
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 92.95%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.86%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/9gsaW4yXD7
  • Fed's Bowman: - It may take time for some people to return to work - The record number of job opportunities is a good sign
  • Fed's Bowman: - There is still work to be done to get the US economy back on track - Employment remains significantly below where it was
  • USD/CAD bounced off support, but looks only corrective in nature. Short-term charts suggest we will soon see price turn down. Get your $USDCAD market update from @PaulRobinsonFX here:https://t.co/zdfLSKm6LF https://t.co/PF5ZXDBxI0
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Wall Street: 0.60% US 500: 0.60% France 40: 0.22% Germany 30: 0.18% FTSE 100: 0.13% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/64Hdik4K4t
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Fed Clarida Speech due at 18:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-08-03
  • Bitcoin cooling off after an impressive run to end the month of July $BTCUSD #Bitcoin https://t.co/7y7H5rldxM
  • Narrator: Not today. Nice rebound staged off that critical support level with oil and yields firming up a bit on the session. Will bulls push onward to print a higher high? $SPY #Trading #Markets https://t.co/jn1yKFNCLG
Pound May Rise as US Dollar Falls on Bank of England, Fed Testimony

Pound May Rise as US Dollar Falls on Bank of England, Fed Testimony

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise as BOE Testimony Fuels Rate Hike Speculation
  • US Dollar Disproportionately Vulnerable to Losses on Yellen Comments
  • RBNZ Survey Puts Inflation Outlook at 15-Year Low, Sinks Kiwi Dollar

Bank of England monetary policy expectations will be in focus in European trading hours as Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and MPC committee member Martin Weale testify about the latest quarterly Inflation Report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hawkish-sounding document triggered a rebuilding of rate hike expectations (as expected) when it was unveiled and more of the same may boost the British Pound. We are now long GBPUSD and short EURGBP.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who is due to deliver her semi-annual Congressional testimony on monetary policy and the global economic outlook. As with last week’s publication of minutes from January’s FOMC meeting, the outing may carry a disproportionally higher risk of diminishing Fed rate hike bets versus the alternative.

The US Dollar has been unable to rise even when key economic data proved clearly supportive (like January’s payrolls report) while speculative net-long USD positioning is near a record high. On balance, this warns that the “policy divergence” narrative that propelled the greenback higher since mid-2014 may be running out of fresh fodder. If Yellen restates recently voiced worries about an increasingly wobbly global environment, that may pour cold water on tightening speculation and send the US unit downward.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against the majors, after an RBNZ survey of inflation expectations showed businesses’ two-year outlook put price growth at a 15-year low of 1.8 percent. The Kiwi’s slide tracked a drop in front-end yields, hinting the drop in price growth bets weighed on interest rate hike prospects.

The Australian and Canadian Dollars followed their commodity bloc counterpart downward, losing as much as 0.3 and 0.2 percent respectively. Meanwhile, the Yen declined as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, undermining demand for the safety-linked currency.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

110.8

-

109.8

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (JAN)

3.4%

3.6%

3.5%

2:00

NZD

RBNZ 2yr Inflation Expectation (1Q)

1.8%

-

2.1%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (FEB)

46.5

47.0

46.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a (YoY) (4Q F)

1.4%

1.4%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a (YoY) (4Q F)

1.6%

1.6%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Private Consumption (QoQ) (4Q)

0.7%

0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Government Spending (QoQ) (4Q)

0.2%

0.6%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Capital Investment (QoQ) (4Q)

0.8%

-0.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Construction Investment (QoQ) (4Q)

1.0%

-0.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Domestic Demand (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

-0.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Exports (QoQ) (4Q)

1.2%

1.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports (QoQ) (4Q)

1.0%

1.7%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Business Confidence (FEB)

95

94

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Confidence (FEB)

99

99

Low

7:45

EUR

French Production Outlook Indicator (FEB)

-

-11

Low

7:45

EUR

French Own-Company Production Outlook (FEB)

-

13

Low

10:00

EUR

Italy Current Account Balance (DEC)

-

3482M

Low

10:00

GBP

BOE's Carney, MPC Members Testify on QIR

-

-

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (JAN)

-1.6%

-0.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (JAN F)

-0.6%

-0.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (JAN F)

0.6%

0.6%

Medium

14:00

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1113

1.1230

1.1282

1.1347

1.1399

1.1464

1.1581

GBPUSD

1.5138

1.5280

1.5368

1.5422

1.5510

1.5564

1.5706

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES