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Pound May Rise as US Dollar Falls on Bank of England, Fed Testimony

Pound May Rise as US Dollar Falls on Bank of England, Fed Testimony

2015-02-24 06:45:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Rise as BOE Testimony Fuels Rate Hike Speculation
  • US Dollar Disproportionately Vulnerable to Losses on Yellen Comments
  • RBNZ Survey Puts Inflation Outlook at 15-Year Low, Sinks Kiwi Dollar

Bank of England monetary policy expectations will be in focus in European trading hours as Governor Mark Carney, Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and MPC committee member Martin Weale testify about the latest quarterly Inflation Report to Parliament’s Treasury Committee. The hawkish-sounding document triggered a rebuilding of rate hike expectations (as expected) when it was unveiled and more of the same may boost the British Pound. We are now long GBPUSD and short EURGBP.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, who is due to deliver her semi-annual Congressional testimony on monetary policy and the global economic outlook. As with last week’s publication of minutes from January’s FOMC meeting, the outing may carry a disproportionally higher risk of diminishing Fed rate hike bets versus the alternative.

The US Dollar has been unable to rise even when key economic data proved clearly supportive (like January’s payrolls report) while speculative net-long USD positioning is near a record high. On balance, this warns that the “policy divergence” narrative that propelled the greenback higher since mid-2014 may be running out of fresh fodder. If Yellen restates recently voiced worries about an increasingly wobbly global environment, that may pour cold water on tightening speculation and send the US unit downward.

The New Zealand Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.6 percent on average against the majors, after an RBNZ survey of inflation expectations showed businesses’ two-year outlook put price growth at a 15-year low of 1.8 percent. The Kiwi’s slide tracked a drop in front-end yields, hinting the drop in price growth bets weighed on interest rate hike prospects.

The Australian and Canadian Dollars followed their commodity bloc counterpart downward, losing as much as 0.3 and 0.2 percent respectively. Meanwhile, the Yen declined as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, undermining demand for the safety-linked currency.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

110.8

-

109.8

23:50

JPY

PPI Services (YoY) (JAN)

3.4%

3.6%

3.5%

2:00

NZD

RBNZ 2yr Inflation Expectation (1Q)

1.8%

-

2.1%

5:00

JPY

Small Business Confidence (FEB)

46.5

47.0

46.3

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (4Q F)

0.7%

0.7%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a (YoY) (4Q F)

1.4%

1.4%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a (YoY) (4Q F)

1.6%

1.6%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Private Consumption (QoQ) (4Q)

0.7%

0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Government Spending (QoQ) (4Q)

0.2%

0.6%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Capital Investment (QoQ) (4Q)

0.8%

-0.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Construction Investment (QoQ) (4Q)

1.0%

-0.3%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Domestic Demand (QoQ) (4Q)

0.6%

-0.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Exports (QoQ) (4Q)

1.2%

1.9%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Imports (QoQ) (4Q)

1.0%

1.7%

Low

7:45

EUR

French Business Confidence (FEB)

95

94

Low

7:45

EUR

French Manufacturing Confidence (FEB)

99

99

Low

7:45

EUR

French Production Outlook Indicator (FEB)

-

-11

Low

7:45

EUR

French Own-Company Production Outlook (FEB)

-

13

Low

10:00

EUR

Italy Current Account Balance (DEC)

-

3482M

Low

10:00

GBP

BOE's Carney, MPC Members Testify on QIR

-

-

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (MoM) (JAN)

-1.6%

-0.1%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (JAN F)

-0.6%

-0.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (JAN F)

0.6%

0.6%

Medium

14:00

EUR

ECB’s Draghi Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1113

1.1230

1.1282

1.1347

1.1399

1.1464

1.1581

GBPUSD

1.5138

1.5280

1.5368

1.5422

1.5510

1.5564

1.5706

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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