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Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes for QE Management Clues

Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes for QE Management Clues

Talking Points:

  • Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes Release for QE Dynamics Clues
  • US Dollar Down as Markets Trim Fed Rate Hike Bets After FOMC Minutes
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The greenback’s descent tracked a drop in front-end Treasury yields, pointing to a deteriorating Fed policy outlook as the catalyst behind the move.

As we suspected, investors pared back rate-hike bets after minutes from January’s FOMC meeting showed officials worried about worsening global conditions and expected a stronger currency to be a persistent drag on exports.

The New Zealand Dollar led the way against its US counterpart as an uptick on fourth-quarter PPI figures weighed against RBNZ easing speculation. Indeed, the Kiwi’s advance paced a push higher on front-end borrowing costs.

The release of minutes from January’s ECB policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The report will mark the first publication of its kind for the currency bloc’s monetary authority. That makes it somewhat difficult to precisely forecast what kind of information may appear in its pages.

January’s meeting marked the introduction of the ECB’s full-blown QE program. With that in mind, traders will be keen gauge what may lead to the program being expanded or otherwise altered from the initial €60/month effort. Rhetoric opening the door greater accommodation before the initial QE push runs expires in mid-July may weigh on the Euro.


Asia Session

21:00NZDANZ Job Advertisements (JAN)-1.1%-2.2%
21:45NZDPPI Output (QoQ) (4Q)-0.1%-1.1%
21:45NZDPPI Input (QoQ) (4Q)-0.4%--1.5%
23:50JPYTrade Balance Total (¥) (JAN)-1177.5B-1681.3B-665.2B
23:50JPYTrade Balance Adjusted (¥) (JAN)-406.1B-598.1B-620.7B
23:50JPYImports (YoY) (JAN)-9.0%-4.9%1.9%
23:50JPYExports (YoY) (JAN)17.0%13.5%12.8%
00:00NZDANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)124.0-128.90
00:00NZDANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)-3.8%-1.9%
00:30AUDRBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (JAN)56M-124M
00:30AUDRBA FX Transactions Gov't (A$) (JAN)-325M--1193M
00:30AUDRBA FX Transactions Market (A$) (JAN)296M-1081M
04:30JPYAll Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)-0.3%-0.3%0.0%
05:00JPYBOJ Monthly Economic Report (FEB)---
05:00JPYCoincident Index (DEC F)110.7-110.7
05:00JPYLeading Index (DEC F)105.6-105.2
05:30JPYTokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)-0.3%
05:30JPYNationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)--1.7%

European Session

07:00CHFTrade Balance (CHF) (JAN)1.20B1.51BLow
07:00CHFImports Real (MoM) (JAN)-0.7%Low
07:00CHFExports Real (MoM) (JAN)--3.1%Low
09:00EUREurozone Current Account s.a. (€) (DEC)-18.1BLow
09:00EUREurozone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (DEC)-24.6BLow
11:00GBPCBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)6.04.0Low
11:00GBPCBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)-7.0-6.0Low
12:30EURECB Publishes Account of Policy Meeting--High
15:00EUREurozone Consumer Confidence (FEB A)-7.5-8.5Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.