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Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes for QE Management Clues

Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes for QE Management Clues

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes Release for QE Dynamics Clues
  • US Dollar Down as Markets Trim Fed Rate Hike Bets After FOMC Minutes
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The greenback’s descent tracked a drop in front-end Treasury yields, pointing to a deteriorating Fed policy outlook as the catalyst behind the move.

As we suspected, investors pared back rate-hike bets after minutes from January’s FOMC meeting showed officials worried about worsening global conditions and expected a stronger currency to be a persistent drag on exports.

The New Zealand Dollar led the way against its US counterpart as an uptick on fourth-quarter PPI figures weighed against RBNZ easing speculation. Indeed, the Kiwi’s advance paced a push higher on front-end borrowing costs.

The release of minutes from January’s ECB policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The report will mark the first publication of its kind for the currency bloc’s monetary authority. That makes it somewhat difficult to precisely forecast what kind of information may appear in its pages.

January’s meeting marked the introduction of the ECB’s full-blown QE program. With that in mind, traders will be keen gauge what may lead to the program being expanded or otherwise altered from the initial €60/month effort. Rhetoric opening the door greater accommodation before the initial QE push runs expires in mid-July may weigh on the Euro.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (JAN)

-1.1%

-

2.2%

21:45

NZD

PPI Output (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.1%

-

1.1%

21:45

NZD

PPI Input (QoQ) (4Q)

-0.4%

-

-1.5%

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Total (¥) (JAN)

-1177.5B

-1681.3B

-665.2B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance Adjusted (¥) (JAN)

-406.1B

-598.1B

-620.7B

23:50

JPY

Imports (YoY) (JAN)

-9.0%

-4.9%

1.9%

23:50

JPY

Exports (YoY) (JAN)

17.0%

13.5%

12.8%

00:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)

124.0

-

128.90

00:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)

-3.8%

-

1.9%

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (JAN)

56M

-

124M

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Gov't (A$) (JAN)

-325M

-

-1193M

00:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Market (A$) (JAN)

296M

-

1081M

04:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)

-0.3%

-0.3%

0.0%

05:00

JPY

BOJ Monthly Economic Report (FEB)

-

-

-

05:00

JPY

Coincident Index (DEC F)

110.7

-

110.7

05:00

JPY

Leading Index (DEC F)

105.6

-

105.2

05:30

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

-

0.3%

05:30

JPY

Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)

-

-1.7%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

07:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (JAN)

1.20B

1.51B

Low

07:00

CHF

Imports Real (MoM) (JAN)

-

0.7%

Low

07:00

CHF

Exports Real (MoM) (JAN)

-

-3.1%

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account s.a. (€) (DEC)

-

18.1B

Low

09:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (DEC)

-

24.6B

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)

6.0

4.0

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)

-7.0

-6.0

Low

12:30

EUR

ECB Publishes Account of Policy Meeting

-

-

High

15:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (FEB A)

-7.5

-8.5

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1218

1.1300

1.1349

1.1382

1.1431

1.1464

1.1546

GBPUSD

1.5143

1.5281

1.5359

1.5419

1.5497

1.5557

1.5695

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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