Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes for QE Management Clues

2015-02-19 05:25:00

Talking Points:

Euro Looks to First ECB Meeting Minutes Release for QE Dynamics Clues
US Dollar Down as Markets Trim Fed Rate Hike Bets After FOMC Minutes
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The US Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.2 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The greenback’s descent tracked a drop in front-end Treasury yields, pointing to a deteriorating Fed policy outlook as the catalyst behind the move.

As we suspected, investors pared back rate-hike bets after minutes from January’s FOMC meeting showed officials worried about worsening global conditions and expected a stronger currency to be a persistent drag on exports.

The New Zealand Dollar led the way against its US counterpart as an uptick on fourth-quarter PPI figures weighed against RBNZ easing speculation. Indeed, the Kiwi’s advance paced a push higher on front-end borrowing costs.

The release of minutes from January’s ECB policy meeting headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The report will mark the first publication of its kind for the currency bloc’s monetary authority. That makes it somewhat difficult to precisely forecast what kind of information may appear in its pages.

January’s meeting marked the introduction of the ECB’s full-blown QE program. With that in mind, traders will be keen gauge what may lead to the program being expanded or otherwise altered from the initial €60/month effort. Rhetoric opening the door greater accommodation before the initial QE push runs expires in mid-July may weigh on the Euro.

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Asia Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	ACT	EXP	PREV
21:00	NZD	ANZ Job Advertisements (JAN)	-1.1%	-	2.2%
21:45	NZD	PPI Output (QoQ) (4Q)	-0.1%	-	1.1%
21:45	NZD	PPI Input (QoQ) (4Q)	-0.4%	-	-1.5%
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance Total (¥) (JAN)	-1177.5B	-1681.3B	-665.2B
23:50	JPY	Trade Balance Adjusted (¥) (JAN)	-406.1B	-598.1B	-620.7B
23:50	JPY	Imports (YoY) (JAN)	-9.0%	-4.9%	1.9%
23:50	JPY	Exports (YoY) (JAN)	17.0%	13.5%	12.8%
00:00	NZD	ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (FEB)	124.0	-	128.90
00:00	NZD	ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (FEB)	-3.8%	-	1.9%
00:30	AUD	RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (JAN)	56M	-	124M
00:30	AUD	RBA FX Transactions Gov't (A$) (JAN)	-325M	-	-1193M
00:30	AUD	RBA FX Transactions Market (A$) (JAN)	296M	-	1081M
04:30	JPY	All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (DEC)	-0.3%	-0.3%	0.0%
05:00	JPY	BOJ Monthly Economic Report (FEB)	-	-	-
05:00	JPY	Coincident Index (DEC F)	110.7	-	110.7
05:00	JPY	Leading Index (DEC F)	105.6	-	105.2
05:30	JPY	Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)		-	0.3%
05:30	JPY	Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (JAN)		-	-1.7%

European Session

GMT	CCY	EVENT	EXP	PREV	IMPACT
07:00	CHF	Trade Balance (CHF) (JAN)	1.20B	1.51B	Low
07:00	CHF	Imports Real (MoM) (JAN)	-	0.7%	Low
07:00	CHF	Exports Real (MoM) (JAN)	-	-3.1%	Low
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Current Account s.a. (€) (DEC)	-	18.1B	Low
09:00	EUR	Eurozone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (DEC)	-	24.6B	Low
11:00	GBP	CBI Trends Total Orders (FEB)	6.0	4.0	Low
11:00	GBP	CBI Trends Selling Prices (FEB)	-7.0	-6.0	Low
12:30	EUR	ECB Publishes Account of Policy Meeting	-	-	High
15:00	EUR	Eurozone Consumer Confidence (FEB A)	-7.5	-8.5	Medium