News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • $NZDUSD is back above 0.7200 this morning, trading near one of January's key levels for the pair. $NZD $USD https://t.co/WIsB7K8Zus
  • UK PM Johnson to visit Scotland to make impassioned plea for Scotland to reject narrow separatism - The Sun $GBP
  • 🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (DEC) Actual: 0.52 Previous: 0.27 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-25
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 100.00%, while traders in EUR/JPY are at opposite extremes with 69.28%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/IcGOFR0QfL
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/LTWADdQYbL
  • Forex Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇳🇿NZD: 0.40% 🇦🇺AUD: 0.16% 🇨🇦CAD: 0.10% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.16% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.16% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Lipxi7E6zE
  • Heads Up:🇺🇸 Chicago Fed National Activity Index (DEC) due at 13:30 GMT (15min) Previous: 0.27 https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-25
  • A bout of strength this morning has driven #Bitcoin back above $34,000, its highest level since last Thursday. $BTC https://t.co/MtTFLxJXjZ
  • 🇲🇽 Economic Activity YoY (NOV) Actual: -3.9% Expected: -4.5% Previous: -5.3% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-01-25
  • US Corporate Earnings (Jan 25-29) Ticker (Earnings Implied move) Jan 26th - $JNJ (2.4%) - $AXP (4.3%) - $VZ (2.1%) - $MSFT (3.5%) Jan 27th - $T (3.6%) - $BA (2.9%) - $FB (6.1%) - $TSLA (6%) - AAPL (4.7%) Jan 28th - $MCD (3%) - $MA (3.6%) - $V (2.8%) Jan 29th - $CAT (4%) https://t.co/4Hir4UHXdY
Euro May Rise as 4Q GDP Data Triggers Short-Covering

Euro May Rise as 4Q GDP Data Triggers Short-Covering

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Better-Than-Expected 4Q Eurozone GDP Print May Trigger Euro Recovery
  • US Dollar May Decline if UofM Confidence Data Falls Short of Expectations
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The preliminary set of fourth-quarter Eurozone GDP figures headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Output is expected to expand by 0.2 percent, matching the increase recorded in the three months through September and keeping the year-on-year growth rate steady at 0.8 percent.

News-flow from the currency bloc have increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks. This hints that analysts are over-estimating the degree of malaise plaguing the region and opening the door for an upside surprise.

While such an outcome won’t dismiss the longer-term bearish outlook courtesy of the ECB’s on-coming launch of quantitative easing (QE), it may offer a reason to initiate short-covering on bets against the single currency, producing a near-term Euro rebound. Indeed, data from CFTC shows net speculative short positions are at their highest since June 2012.

Later in the day, the spotlight will turn to February’s University of Michigan gauge of US consumer confidence. The index is expected to hold unchanged at 98.1, matching an eleven-year high recorded in the prior month.

Contrary to the Euro area, realized data outcomes out of the US have increasingly trailed behind consensus forecasts. This warns of a disappointing print that may weigh on the US Dollar amid moderating Fed rate hike bets. Technical positioning likewise warns of a downside scenario.

New to FX? START HERE!

Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (JAN)

1.3%

-

0.3%

2:00

CNY

Conference Board Leading Index (JAN)

311.4

-

311.6

2:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (JAN)

65.8%

-

65.0%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:30

EUR

French GDP (YoY) (4Q P)

0.3%

0.4%

Medium

6:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) (4Q P)

0.1%

0.3%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German GDP s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

0.3%

0.1%

High

7:00

EUR

German GDP n.s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

1.2%

1.2%

High

7:00

EUR

German GDP w.d.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

1.0%

1.2%

High

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP (YoY) (4Q P)

-0.5%

-0.5%

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP (QoQ) (4Q P)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

EUR

General Italy Government Debt (DEC)

-

2160.1B

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

2.7%

-2.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

5.5%

3.6%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP s.a. (QoQ) (4Q P)

0.2%

0.2%

High

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP s.a. (YoY) (4Q P)

0.8%

0.8%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1136

1.1256

1.1330

1.1376

1.1450

1.1496

1.1616

GBPUSD

1.4926

1.5131

1.5257

1.5336

1.5462

1.5541

1.5746

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE

Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES