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Currency Markets Set Sights on G20 as Greek Impasse Looms Large

Currency Markets Set Sights on G20 as Greek Impasse Looms Large

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian, NZ Dollars Briefly Advance on Soft Chinese Inflation Figures
  • G20 Meeting in Focus as Greece/EU Impasse Continues to Loom Large
  • See Economic Data Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The major currencies were little-changed in overnight trade, with markets seemingly waiting for higher-profile event risk on tap in the latter half of the week before resigning to directional commitment. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars rallied following an unexpectedly soft set of Chinese CPI figures, but gains proved short-lived.

The report showed the headline year-on-year inflation rate slowed to just 0.8 percent, the weakest since November 2009. That probably fueled hopes for greater stimulus expansion in the world’s second-largest economy, an outcome that could bode well for Australian and New Zealand export prospects and boost overall growth. That in turn might limit the scope for further RBA and RBNZ interest rate cuts.

Looking ahead, a quiet day on the European economic data docket will put Greece-related news-flow at the forefront as G20 finance ministers gather in Istanbul. Officials are surely unnerved by the possible implications of forced “Grexit” for global growth and financial stability. Meanwhile, various members of the new anti-austerity government in Athens continue to trade barbs with the Germany-led contingent of EU member states that insist Greece must follow through on the terms of its bailout.

While the G20 sit-down is unlikely to deliver the final word on the crisis, traders will be keen to size up the tenor of rhetoric coming out of the event to get a sense for where things are headed. Representatives of economies outside the EU will surely press both sides to strike a deal for the collective benefit of everyone. If such efforts appear to pave the way for a breakthrough, firming sentiment may weigh on the safe-haven Japanese Yen and the Euro is likely to receive a healthy boost on waning redenomination fears.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (JAN)

0.9%

-

3.4%

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

111.7

-

112.4

23:50

JPY

Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (DEC)

-0.3%

0.0%

0.2%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M2 (YoY) (JAN)

3.6%

3.4%

3.6%

23:50

JPY

Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (JAN)

2.8%

2.9%

2.9%

23:50

JPY

Housing Loans (YoY) (4Q)

2.5%

-

2.8%

0:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (JAN)

0.2%

0.5%

-0.4%

0:30

AUD

House Price Index (YoY) (4Q)

6.8%

7.1%

9.0%

0:30

AUD

House Price Index (QoQ) (4Q)

1.9%

1.8%

1.4%

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Conditions (JAN)

2

-

2

0:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence (JAN)

3.0%

-

2

1:30

CNY

PPI (YoY) (JAN)

-4.3%

-3.8%

-3.3%

1:30

CNY

CPI (YoY) (JAN)

0.8%

1.1%

1.5%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate (JAN)

3.5%

3.4%

Medium

6:45

CHF

Unemployment Rate s.a. (JAN)

3.1% (A)

3.2%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) (JAN)

-0.4% (A)

-0.5%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI (YoY) (JAN)

-0.5% (A)

-0.3%

Medium

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (MoM) (JAN)

-0.6% (A)

0.0%

Low

8:15

CHF

CPI - EU Harmonized (YoY) (JAN)

-0.1% (A)

-0.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) (DEC)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) (DEC)

0.5%

1.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) (DEC)

-0.1%

0.7%

Medium

9:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (YoY) (DEC)

2.0%

2.7%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1140

1.1229

1.1277

1.1318

1.1366

1.1407

1.1496

GBPUSD

1.5092

1.5160

1.5188

1.5228

1.5256

1.5296

1.5364

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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