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Franc Gains as ECB Shuns Greek Bonds, Pound to Look Past Static BOE

Franc Gains as ECB Shuns Greek Bonds, Pound to Look Past Static BOE

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Franc Gains as ECB Says Greek Bonds Unacceptable as Collateral
  • Australian, New Zealand Dollars Rise After China’s 50bps RRR Cut
  • Bank of England Rate Decision Likely a Non-Event for the Pound

The Swiss Franc outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.3 percent on average against its top counterparts. The move appears to have reflected regional safe-haven flows after the ECB announced that it will no longer accept Greek government bonds as collateral for lending.

That sent jitters across financial markets amid worries of oncoming capital shortages and potential bank failures in the event Greek lenders run short on liquidity. Reports suggesting the central bank will make the ELA emergency facility available dampened concerns to some extent however.

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars likewise pushed higher, adding as much as 0.5 and 0.3 percent respectively against the majors. The move appeared to reflect optimism linked to the PBOC, which unexpectedly announced a 50 basis point cut in its reserve requirement ratio.

China is Australia and New Zealand’s largest trading partner and markets likely speculated that an easing of monetary policy that boosts growth there may bode well for the two Oceanic countries’ export demand profiles. That may in turn translate into better overall growth prospects and limit scope for on-coming RBA and RBNZ interest rate reductions.

A monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Mark Carney and company are widely expected to keep the status quo in place, meaning no statement is likely to be issued. That will probably mean the announcement will amount to a non-event for the British Pound, with the currency waiting for next week’s quarterly Inflation Report for policy cues.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

0:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (DEC)

-1.9%

-

2.2%

0:30

AUD

Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

0.2%

0.3%

0.1%

0:30

AUD

Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (4Q)

1.5%

1.1%

0.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

6:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Confidence (JAN)

-13

-11

Low

7:00

EUR

German Factory Orders s.a. (MoM) (DEC)

1.5%

-2.4%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Factory Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (DEC)

0.7%

-0.4%

Medium

8:30

EUR

Markit Germany Construction PMI (JAN)

-

50.5

Low

9:00

GBP

New Car Registrations (YoY) (JAN)

-

8.7%

Low

9:00

EUR

ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin

-

-

Low

9:10

EUR

Markit Germany Retail PMI (JAN)

-

51.7

Low

9:10

EUR

Markit Italy Retail PMI (JAN)

-

42.8

Low

9:10

EUR

Markit Eurozone Retail PMI (JAN)

-

47.6

Low

9:10

EUR

Markit France Retail PMI (JAN)

-

46.5

Low

12:00

GBP

Bank of England Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

High

12:00

GBP

BOE Asset Purchase Target (£)

375B

375B

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1044

1.1213

1.1279

1.1382

1.1448

1.1551

1.1720

GBPUSD

1.4967

1.5079

1.5130

1.5191

1.5242

1.5303

1.5415

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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