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Yen Gains on Nikkei Drop, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Tumble After RBA

Yen Gains on Nikkei Drop, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Tumble After RBA

2015-02-03 07:39:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Yen Gains on Nikkei Drop, Aussie and Kiwi Dollars Fall After RBA
  • Pound, US Dollar Unlikely to Find Lasting Fuel in Upcoming Data
  • See Data Outcomes Directly on Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Japanese Yen outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.8 percent against its leading counterparts. The move tracked a sharp decline Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind a swell in demand for the safety-linked currency.

The Australian Dollar proved weakest on the session – sinking as much as 1.97 percent against the majors – after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its benchmark lending rate to 2.25 percent and issued a strongly dovish policy statement hinting at further easing up ahead. The New Zealand Dollar followed the Aussie downward, losing 1.2 percent.

Looking ahead, a quiet economic calendar in European and US trading hours may allow established momentum to continue to play out. S&P 500 index futures are pointing lower, hinting the Yen may enjoy continued sentiment-based support. Meanwhile, the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars might have scope for deeper losses as investors outside of Asia take their turn to react to overnight developments.

January’s UK Construction PMI reading is expected to show the pace of activity growth in the home-building sector slowed to the weakest since July 2013. UK economic news-flow has increasingly outperformed relative to consensus forecasts however, opening the door for an upside surprise. That may offer a bit of a boost to the British Pound, but significant follow-through seems unlikely.

On the other side of the spectrum, realized US data outcomes have increasingly weakened relative to expectations, suggesting December’s Factory Orders reading may yield a more disappointing result than the 2.4 percent decline penciled in by analysts. That may push back against Fed rate hike bets and apply downward pressure on the US Dollar. Here too however, the extent of the move may be limited as traders await Friday’s much-anticipated payrolls figures.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

112.4

-

113.2

23:00

NZD

QV House Prices (YoY) (JAN)

5.7%

-

4.9%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base - End of Period (¥ ) (JAN)

278.6T

-

275.9T

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (JAN)

37.4%

-

38.2%

0:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (JAN)

-0.9%

-

-4.4%

0:30

AUD

Trade Balance (A$) (DEC)

-436M

-850M

-1016M

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (DEC)

-3.3%

-5.0%

7.7%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (DEC)

8.8%

5.1%

10.2%

3:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

2.25%

2.50%

2.50%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

CHF

Trade Balance (CHF) (DEC)

1.52B (A)

3.80B

Medium

7:00

CHF

Exports (MoM) (DEC)

-3.1% (A)

0.1%

Low

7:00

CHF

Imports (MoM) (DEC)

0.7% (A)

-3.0%

Low

7:00

CHF

UBS Real Estate Bubble Index (4Q)

1.28 (A)

1.29

Low

9:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (JAN)

57.0

57.6

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (MoM) (DEC)

-0.7%

-0.3%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (YoY) (DEC)

-2.5%

-1.6%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1161

1.1244

1.1293

1.1327

1.1376

1.1410

1.1493

GBPUSD

1.4859

1.4954

1.4996

1.5049

1.5091

1.5144

1.5239

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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