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US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Disappointing US GDP Data

US Dollar May Fall as Yen Gains on Disappointing US GDP Data

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Soft 4Q US GDP Data May Punish US Dollar, Drive Japanese Yen Gains
  • Euro Unlikely to Find Potent Catalyst in Soft Eurozone Inflation Figures
  • See Economic News Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

January’s flash Eurozone CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The benchmark year-on-year inflation rate is expected to slip deeper into negative territory, registering a 0.5 percent decline to come within a hair of the all-time low (-0.6% y/y) recorded in July 2009.

While a soft outcome will support the case for aggressive monetary stimulus, its impact on the Euro may prove limited. The ECB unveiled a large QE effort just last week, meaning another soft CPI print will imply relatively little for the near-term outlook andthereby offer no impetus for outsized volatility.

Later in the day, the spotlight turns to the preliminary set of fourth-quarter US GDP figures. Economists are penciling in an annualized growth rate of 3 percent, marking a slowdown from the 5 percent surge notched up in the third quarter and brings the pace of expansion back toward the near-term trend average (2.8 percent).

US news-flow has dramatically deteriorated relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks however. That suggests analysts’ models are overestimating the vigor of the world’s largest economy, opening the door for a downside surprise. Such an outcome may weigh on the US Dollar as traders push back Fed rate hike expectations. It may likewise drive risk aversion amid worries the about the inability of US growth to offset malaise in Europe and Asia, triggering an unwinding of carry trades and boosting the Japanese Yen.

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Asia Session

GMTCCYEVENTACTEXPPREV
21:45NZDBuilding Permits (MoM) (DEC)-2.1%-10.5%
21:45NZDNet Migration s.a. (DEC)4100-5000
23:30JPYJobless Rate (DEC)3.4%3.5%3.5%
23:30JPYJob-To-Applicant Ratio (DEC)1.151.121.12
23:30JPYHousehold Spending (YoY) (DEC)-3.4%-2.3%-2.5%
23:30JPYNational CPI (YoY) (DEC)2.4%2.3%2.4%
23:30JPYNational CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (DEC)2.5%2.6%2.7%
23:30JPYNational CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (DEC)2.1%2.1%2.1%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI (YoY) (JAN)2.3%2.2%2.2%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (JAN)2.2%2.2%2.3%
23:30JPYTokyo CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (JAN)1.7%1.8%1.8%
23:50JPYIndustrial Production (MoM) (DEC P)1.0%1.2%-0.5%
23:50JPYIndustrial Production (YoY) (DEC P)0.3%0.3%-3.7%
0:05GBPGfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JAN)1-2-4
0:30AUDPPI (YoY) (4Q)1.1%-1.2%
0:30AUDPPI (QoQ) (4Q)0.1%-0.2%
0:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit (YoY) (DEC)5.9%5.9%5.9%
0:30AUDPrivate Sector Credit (MoM) (DEC)0.5%0.5%0.5%
2:00NZDMoney Supply M3 (YoY) (DEC)6.3%-5.9%
4:00JPYVehicle Production (YoY) (DEC)-2.5%--12.2%
5:00JPYHousing Starts (YoY) (DEC)-14.7%-14.8%-14.3%
5:00JPYAnnualized Housing Starts (DEC)0.883M0.900M0.888M
6:00JPYConstruction Orders (YoY) (DEC)7.5%-16.9%

European Session

GMTCCYEVENTEXP/ACTPREVIMPACT
7:00EURGerman Retail Sales (MoM) (DEC)0.2% (A)0.9%Low
7:00EURGerman Retail Sales (YoY) (DEC)4.0% (A)-1.0%Low
8:00CHFKOF Leading Indicator (JAN)97.0 (A)98.8Medium
9:30GBPNet Consumer Credit (DEC)1.2B1.3BLow
9:30GBPNet Lending Sec. on Dwellings (DEC)1.9B2.1BLow
9:30GBPMortgage Approvals (DEC)59.0K59.0KMedium
9:30GBPM4 Money Supply (MoM) (DEC)-0.0%Low
9:30GBPM4 Money Supply (YoY) (DEC)--2.8%Low
9:30GBPM4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualized (DEC)-2.9%Low
10:00EUREurozone Unemployment Rate (DEC)11.5%11.5%Medium
10:00EUREurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (JAN)-0.5%-0.2%High
10:00EUREurozone CPI - Core (YoY) (JAN A)0.7%0.7%High

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3
EURUSD1.11051.12111.12651.13171.13711.14231.1529
GBPUSD1.47971.49401.50031.50831.51461.52261.5369

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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