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US Dollar May Shrug Off Soft PPI, Yen Aiming Higher on Risk Appetite

US Dollar May Shrug Off Soft PPI, Yen Aiming Higher on Risk Appetite

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Soars as Firm Employment Data Trims RBA Rate Cut Bets
  • Yen May Continue Lower After Overnight Slump on Firming Risk Sentiment
  • US Dollar May Shrug Off Soft Headline PPI on Limited Fed Outlook Impact

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, adding as much as 1 percent on average against its top counterparts, after December’s Employment figures topped economists’ forecasts (as expected). The report showed the economy added 37,400 jobs last month, topping calls for a 5,000 increase. The jobless rate fell to 6.1 percent, the lowest in four months. The Aussie’s advance tracked a jump in front-end bond yields, suggesting the upbeat data set poured cold water on the recent build in RBA interest rate cut speculation.

The Yen faced selling pressure, dropping as much as 0.4 percent against the majors, as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index launched a sharp recovery. The build in risk appetite sapped demand for the safety-linked currency. More of the same is hinted ahead as S&P 500 futures point firmly higher ahead of the opening bell in Europe, with relatively little on the economic data docket to disrupt sentiment-driven price action.

December’s US PPI report enters the spotlight later in the day. The headline year-on-year wholesale inflation rate is seen edging down to 1 percent, the lowest in 10 months. The soft result may not yield significant downside pressure on the US Dollar however.

The core PPI reading (which excludes the impact of energy prices) is seen edging upward to 1.9 percent, the highest since May. This suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to continue chalking up weak headline inflation to the transitory impact of dropping crude oil prices, meaning it won’t necessarily interpret the result as reason enough to delay interest rate hikes.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Food Prices (MoM) (DEC)

0.3%

-

-0.5%

23:50

JPY

PPI (MoM) (DEC)

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.3%

23:50

JPY

PPI (YoY) (DEC)

1.9%

2.1%

2.6%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (MoM) (NOV)

1.3%

4.4%

-6.4%

23:50

JPY

Machine Orders (YoY) (NOV)

-14.6%

6.3%

-4.9%

0:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance (DEC)

11%

10%

13%

0:30

AUD

Employment Change (DEC)

37.4K

5.0K

45.0K

0:30

AUD

Unemployment Rate (DEC)

6.1%

6.3%

6.2%

0:30

AUD

Full Time Employment Change (DEC)

41.6K

-

2.6K

0:30

AUD

Part Time Employment Change (DEC)

-4.1K

-

42.3K

0:30

AUD

Participation Rate (DEC)

64.8%

64.7%

64.7%

0:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Govt (A$) (DEC)

-1193M

-

-381M

0:30

AUD

RBA FX Transactions Other (A$) (DEC)

124M

-

49M

0:30

AUD

RBA FX Transaction (A$) (DEC)

1081M

-

337M

1:30

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

-1.0%

-

3.3%

1:30

NZD

REINZ House Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

6.0%

-

6.0%

1:30

NZD

REINZ House Sales (YoY) (DEC)

24.2%

-

6.5%

2:04

CNY

Money Supply M2 (YoY) (DEC)

12.2%

12.5%

12.3%

2:04

CNY

Money Supply M1 (YoY) (DEC)

3.2%

3.3%

3.2%

2:04

CNY

Money Supply M0 (YoY) (DEC)

2.9%

4.0%

3.5%

2:04

CNY

New Yuan Loans (DEC)

697.3B

890.0B

852.7B

2:04

CNY

Aggregate Financing RMB (DEC)

1690.0B

1200.0B

1146.3B

2:04

CNY

Foreign Reserves (DEC)

$3840.0B

$3900.0B

$3887.7B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:00

EUR

German GDP nsa (YoY) (2014)

1.5%

0.1%

Medium

9:00

EUR

German Budget Balance/GDP Ratio (2014)

0.1%

0.1%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance s.a. (€) (NOV)

20.0B

19.4B

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Trade Balance (€) (NOV)

-

24.0B

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1549

1.1668

1.1729

1.1787

1.1848

1.1906

1.2025

GBPUSD

1.4968

1.5092

1.5163

1.5216

1.5287

1.5340

1.5464

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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