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British Pound May Overlook Soft UK Inflation Figures

British Pound May Overlook Soft UK Inflation Figures

Ilya Spivak,

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Not Find Lasting Weakness in Soft UK Inflation Numbers
  • Yen Falls as S&P 500 Futures Rise, NZ Dollar Declines on RBNZ Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

December’s UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to edge downward to 0.7 percent, the lowest in over 12 years. A soft result may not yield significant downside pressure on the British Pound however.

The core CPI reading (which excludes the impact of energy prices, among other volatile items) is seen edging upward to 1.3 percent from the 1.2 percent reading posted in November. This suggests that – similarly to the Federal Reserve – the Bank of England may chalk up the slide in headline price growth to the transitory impact of the sinking cost of crude oil, meaning it won’t necessarily interpret a weak result as reason enough to delay interest rate hikes.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as S&P 500 futures recovered, pointing to firming risk appetite and putting pressure on the safety-linked currency. The New Zealand Dollar likewise traded lower as the island nation’s bond yields fell, hinting at ebbing RBNZ interest rate hike expectations. We have entered short NZDUSD.


Asia Session

21:00NZDANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (DEC)2.1%--2.8%
22:30AUDANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf112.0-111.7
23:50JPYBoP Current Account Balance (NOV)¥433.0B¥139.5B¥833.4B
23:50JPYBoP Current Account Adjusted (NOV)¥914.5B¥692.5B¥947.0B
23:50JPYTrade Balance BoP Basis (NOV)-¥636.8B-¥734.0B-¥766.6B
23:50JPYBank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (DEC)2.6%-2.7%
23:50JPYBank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (DEC)2.7%-2.8%
0:01GBPBRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (DEC)-0.4%1.0%0.9%
2:04CNYTrade Balance (DEC)$49.61B$49.00B$54.48B
2:04CNYExports (YoY) (DEC)9.7%6.0%4.7%
2:04CNYImports (YoY) (DEC)-2.4%-6.2%-6.7%
4:30JPYBankruptcies (YoY) (DEC)-8.53%--14.61%
5:00JPYEco Watchers Survey Current (DEC)
5:00JPYEco Watchers Survey Outlook (DEC)46.7-44.0

European Session

7:00EURGermany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (DEC)--0.7%Low
7:00EURGermany Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (DEC)--1.1%Low
9:00EURItaly Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)0.1%-0.1%Low
9:00EURItaly Industrial Production wda (YoY) (NOV)-2.7%-3.0%Low
9:00EURItaly Industrial Production nsa (YoY) (NOV)--3.0%Low
9:30GBPCPI (MoM) (DEC)0.1%-0.3%High
9:30GBPCPI (YoY) (DEC)0.7%1.0%High
9:30GBPCPI Core (YoY) (DEC)1.3%1.2%High
9:30GBPRPI (MoM) (DEC)0.1%-0.2%Medium
9:30GBPRPI (YoY) (DEC)1.6%2.0%Medium
9:30GBPRPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (DEC)1.6%2.0%Medium
9:30GBPPPI Input NSA (MoM) (DEC)-2.6%-1.0%Low
9:30GBPPPI Input NSA (YoY) (DEC)-11.5%-8.8%Low
9:30GBPPPI Output NSA (MoM) (DEC)-0.3%0.2%Medium
9:30GBPPPI Output NSA (YoY) (DEC)-0.4%-0.1%Medium
9:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (DEC)-0.1%0.5%Low
9:30GBPPPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (DEC)1.2%1.4%Low
9:30GBPONS House Price (YoY) (NOV)9.8%10.4%Medium

Critical Levels

CCYSupp 3Supp 2Supp 1Pivot PointRes 1Res 2Res 3

-- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

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