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British Pound May Overlook Soft UK Inflation Figures

British Pound May Overlook Soft UK Inflation Figures

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • British Pound May Not Find Lasting Weakness in Soft UK Inflation Numbers
  • Yen Falls as S&P 500 Futures Rise, NZ Dollar Declines on RBNZ Outlook
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

December’s UK CPI data headlines the economic calendar in European trading hours. Expectations call for the headline year-on-year inflation rate to edge downward to 0.7 percent, the lowest in over 12 years. A soft result may not yield significant downside pressure on the British Pound however.

The core CPI reading (which excludes the impact of energy prices, among other volatile items) is seen edging upward to 1.3 percent from the 1.2 percent reading posted in November. This suggests that – similarly to the Federal Reserve – the Bank of England may chalk up the slide in headline price growth to the transitory impact of the sinking cost of crude oil, meaning it won’t necessarily interpret a weak result as reason enough to delay interest rate hikes.

The Japanese Yen underperformed in otherwise quiet overnight trade, rising as much as S&P 500 futures recovered, pointing to firming risk appetite and putting pressure on the safety-linked currency. The New Zealand Dollar likewise traded lower as the island nation’s bond yields fell, hinting at ebbing RBNZ interest rate hike expectations. We have entered short NZDUSD.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Truckometer Heavy (MoM) (DEC)

2.1%

-

-2.8%

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

112.0

-

111.7

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Balance (NOV)

¥433.0B

¥139.5B

¥833.4B

23:50

JPY

BoP Current Account Adjusted (NOV)

¥914.5B

¥692.5B

¥947.0B

23:50

JPY

Trade Balance BoP Basis (NOV)

-¥636.8B

-¥734.0B

-¥766.6B

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Incl Trusts (YoY) (DEC)

2.6%

-

2.7%

23:50

JPY

Bank Lending Ex-Trusts (YoY) (DEC)

2.7%

-

2.8%

0:01

GBP

BRC Sales Like-For-Like (YoY) (DEC)

-0.4%

1.0%

0.9%

2:04

CNY

Trade Balance (DEC)

$49.61B

$49.00B

$54.48B

2:04

CNY

Exports (YoY) (DEC)

9.7%

6.0%

4.7%

2:04

CNY

Imports (YoY) (DEC)

-2.4%

-6.2%

-6.7%

4:30

JPY

Bankruptcies (YoY) (DEC)

-8.53%

-

-14.61%

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Current (DEC)

45.2

44.0

41.5

5:00

JPY

Eco Watchers Survey Outlook (DEC)

46.7

-

44.0

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP/ACT

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (DEC)

-

-0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (DEC)

-

-1.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

-0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy Industrial Production wda (YoY) (NOV)

-2.7%

-3.0%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italy Industrial Production nsa (YoY) (NOV)

-

-3.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) (DEC)

0.1%

-0.3%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) (DEC)

0.7%

1.0%

High

9:30

GBP

CPI Core (YoY) (DEC)

1.3%

1.2%

High

9:30

GBP

RPI (MoM) (DEC)

0.1%

-0.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

RPI (YoY) (DEC)

1.6%

2.0%

Medium

9:30

GBP

RPI Ex Mort Int.Payments (YoY) (DEC)

1.6%

2.0%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (MoM) (DEC)

-2.6%

-1.0%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Input NSA (YoY) (DEC)

-11.5%

-8.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (MoM) (DEC)

-0.3%

0.2%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output NSA (YoY) (DEC)

-0.4%

-0.1%

Medium

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (MoM) (DEC)

-0.1%

0.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) (DEC)

1.2%

1.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

ONS House Price (YoY) (NOV)

9.8%

10.4%

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.1660

1.1745

1.1790

1.1830

1.1875

1.1915

1.2000

GBPUSD

1.4965

1.5060

1.5116

1.5155

1.5211

1.5250

1.5345

-- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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