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Yen Down on Risk Appetite Swell But Year-End Flows May Fuel Turn

Yen Down on Risk Appetite Swell But Year-End Flows May Fuel Turn

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Return of Year-Capital Flows May Reboot Pre-FOMC Price Action Trends
  • Yen Down, Aussie and NZ Dollars Higher as Risk Appetite Swells Overnight
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The safe-haven Japanese Yen slumped while the sentiment-geared Australian and New Zealand Dollar advanced as risk appetite firmed overnight. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark stock index rose 1.1 percent in a move that appeared to reflect follow-on momentum from a sharp rally on Wall Street. S&P 500 futures are pointing firmly higher head of the opening bell in Europe, hinting at more of the same through the end of the trading week.

Seasonal factors complicate continued improvement in sentiment however. The markets went into this week’s top event risk – the FOMC monetary policy announcement – gripped by a year-end push to take profits on trades reflecting the dominant themes prevalent in 2014. While the outcome of the sit-down disrupted this process, liquidation may return as the dust settles and traders reconsider the implications of what the Fed delivered.

Swelling risk appetite – embodied by a relentless push upward by US share prices – and a firming US Dollar have been the defining features of the macro landscape in 2014. The resumption of profit-taking on these trades as the onset of 2015 approaches would imply another parallel downturn in the greenback and sentiment-geared assets.

Renewed USDJPY weakness seems to best embody both sides of another push in year-end capital flows. On one hand, risk aversion points to the unwinding of frequently Yen-funded carry trades. On the other, a market-wide reversal of Fed-inspired US Dollar buying is likely to put potent downward pressure on the pair considering its sensitivity to shifts in the expected yield differential.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:00

NZD

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (NOV)

-0.1%

-

-0.3%

21:45

NZD

Net Migration s.a. (NOV)

5010

-

5240

0:00

NZD

ANZ Activity Outlook (DEC)

37.3

-

41.7

0:00

NZD

NBNZ Business Confidence (DEC)

30.4

-

31.5

0:05

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (DEC)

-4

-1

-2

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (MoM) (NOV)

0.3%

-

1.5%

2:00

NZD

Credit Card Spending (YoY) (NOV)

5.2%

-

6.8%

3:28

JPY

BOJ Annual Rise in Monetary Base (¥)

80T

80T

80T

4:30

JPY

All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (OCT)

-0.1%

0.0%

1.4%

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (OCT F)

104.5

-

110.2

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (OCT F)

109.9

-

104

5:00

JPY

Nationwide Dept Store Sales (YoY) (NOV)

-1.0%

-

-2.2%

5:00

JPY

Tokyo Dept Store Sales (YoY) (NOV)

0.3%

-

-0.1%

6:30

JPY

BOJ Policy Statement, Kuroda Press Conf

-

-

-

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (MoM) (NOV)

-0.2%

-0.2%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Producer Prices (YoY) (NOV)

-1.1%

-1.0%

Low

7:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Conf (JAN)

8.8

8.7

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account s.a () (OCT)

-

30.0B

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a. () (OCT)

-

31.0B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing (£) (NOV)

14.8B

7.1B

Low

9:30

GBP

PSNB ex Banking Groups (£) (NOV)

15.1B

7.7B

Low

9:30

GBP

Public Finances (PSNCR) (£) (NOV)

-

-2.6B

Low

9:30

GBP

Central Government NCR (£) (NOV)

-

-3.7B

Low

11:00

GBP

CBI Reported Sales (DEC)

30

27

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2128

1.2215

1.2251

1.2302

1.2338

1.2389

1.2476

GBPUSD

1.5376

1.5504

1.5587

1.5632

1.5715

1.5760

1.5888

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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