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Yen May Rise Anew as Russian Trade Data Weighs on Risk Appetite

Yen May Rise Anew as Russian Trade Data Weighs on Risk Appetite

2014-12-12 07:00:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Russian Trade Balance Data May Rekindle Risk Aversion into the Week-End
  • Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise on Upbeat US Data, NZ Dollar Corrects Lower
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

Emerging-market jitters may renew pressure on risky assets in the final hours of the trading week. Russian Trade Balance figures are expected to show the smallest surplus in over two years at $11.6 billion. The announcement threatens to shine the spotlight on an increasingly precarious situation that looks dangerously likely to result in either an acute budget crisis or the introduction of capital controls.

Needless to say, neither alternative bodes well for sentiment. With that in mind, a data set that fuels fears of Russia-driven market dislocation may renew the push to liquidate risk-geared positions set off earlier in the week. That is likely to yield another leg upward in the Japanese Yen and weigh on higher-yielding currencies such as the Australian Dollar.

Currency markets were little-changed in overnight trade, with most of the majors mired in consolidation mode. The Yen narrowly underperformed as stocks advanced, sapping haven demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 0.7 percent following upbeat US Retail Sales data published earlier in the day. The US is a leading export market for Asian firms and a pickup in retail activity may have been interpreted as supportive of cross-border demand prospects. The New Zealand Dollar also declined as prices continued to digest the rally after the RBNZ policy announcement.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:30

NZD

BusinessNZ Perf of Mfg Index

55.2

-

58.9

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (DEC)

126.5

-

121.8

0:00

NZD

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (DEC)

3.9%

-

-1.3%

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Balances (A$) (OCT)

49.6B

-

49.4B

0:30

AUD

Credit Card Purchases (A$) (OCT)

24.4B

-

23.9B

2:00

NZD

Non Resident Bond Holdings (NOV)

66.5%

-

64.8%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM) (OCT F)

0.4%

-

0.2%

4:30

JPY

Industrial Production (YoY) (OCT F)

-0.8%

-

-1.0%

4:30

JPY

Capacity Utilization (MoM) (OCT)

0.7%

-

3.6%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

7.2%

7.5%

7.7%

5:30

CNY

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (NOV)

8.3%

8.3%

8.4%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales (YoY) (NOV)

11.7%

11.5%

11.5%

5:30

CNY

Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (NOV)

12.0%

12.0%

12.0%

5:30

CNY

Fixed Assets Ex Rural (YTD) (YoY) (NOV)

15.8%

15.8%

15.9%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (NOV)

-

-0.7%

Low

7:00

EUR

German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (NOV)

-

-0.6%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (NOV)

0.7%

1.8%

Low

9:30

GBP

Construction Output s.a. (YoY) (NOV)

1.3%

3.5%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (QoQ) (3Q)

-

0.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (YoY) (3Q)

-

0.4%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (NOV)

0.2%

0.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Production (YoY) (NOV)

0.7%

0.6%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Employment (QoQ)

-

0.2%

Low

11:00

EUR

ECB Announces 3yr LTRO Repayment

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2175

1.2300

1.2356

1.2425

1.2481

1.2550

1.2675

GBPUSD

1.5504

1.5609

1.5671

1.5714

1.5776

1.5819

1.5924

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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