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Dollar, Yen Torn Between US Jobs Data and Year-End Capital Flows

Dollar, Yen Torn Between US Jobs Data and Year-End Capital Flows

2014-12-05 05:49:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • US Dollar Needs Outsized Beat on Payrolls Print to Refuel Upward Drive
  • Yen May Rise After Overnight Drop on Year-End Flows After NFP Report
  • German Factory Orders, Eurozone GDP Revision Unlikely to Stir the Euro

A relatively muted economic calendar in European trading hours puts the spotlight on US Employment figures. The report is set to show nonfarm payrolls rose 230,000 in November, marking a modest pickup from October’s 214,000 increase. Leading survey reports indicate manufacturing employment grew at the second-fastest rate since January 2013 last month. Meanwhile, service-sector job creation advanced at the strongest pace since June. Such rosy readings may be foreshadowing an upside surprise, a result that may boost the US Dollar amid firming Fed policy bets.

Absent a substantial deviation from expectations however, year-end capital flows may overtake price action. The priced-in US policy outlook (as reflected in OIS pricing) has mirrored broad-based stability in US economic news-flow (per data from Citigroup) since early- to mid-September. A payrolls print maintaining this status quo may open the door for a round of profit-taking on the year’s top trends as markets settle in for the on-coming winter holiday lull. Such a dynamic could bode ill for the greenback as well as risk appetite at large, hinting the Japanese Yen may have scope to recover.

October’s German Factory Orders figures and a revised set of third-quarter Eurozone GDP numbers are unlikely to produce a substantive response from the Euroconsidering their limited implications for near-term ECB monetary policy. Central bank President Mario Draghi confirmed prior hints from other policymakers suggesting the next key inflection point will probably occur toward the end of the first quarter of 2015 at a press conference yesterday. In the meantime, officials are likely to remain in wait-and-see mode as they assess the potency of a medley of stimulus measures unveiled over recent months.

The Yen declined in overnight trade as Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 index moved higher, sapping demand for the safe-haven currency. The British Pound came under pressure after a joint report from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC), KPMG and Markit Economics on UK employment showed permanent placements rose at the slowest pace in 18 months. The New Zealand Dollar declined alongside the island nation’s front-end bond yields, pointing to ebbing rate hike expectations as the catalyst behind the selloff. A clear-cut trigger for dampening RBNZ policy bets was not apparent however.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Construction Index (NOV)

45.4

-

53.4

23:50

JPY

Official Reserve Assets ($) (NOV)

1269.1B

-

1265.9B

5:00

JPY

Leading Index (OCT P)

104.0

104.1

105.6

5:00

JPY

Coincident Index (OCT P)

110.2

110.0

109.8

5:30

AUD

Foreign Reserves (A$) (NOV)

61.7B

-

53.6B

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

7:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) (OCT)

0.5%

0.8%

Medium

7:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (YoY) (OCT)

0.0%

-1.0%

Medium

8:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves (NOV)

465.5B

460.4B

Low

9:30

GBP

BoE/GfK Inflation Next 12 Months (NOV)

-

2.8%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Gross Fixed Capital (QoQ) (3Q)

-0.2%

-0.9%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Gov’t Expenditure (QoQ) (3Q)

0.2%

0.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Household Consumption (QoQ) (3Q)

0.3%

0.3%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP (QoQ) (3Q P)

0.2%

0.2%

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone GDP (YoY) (3Q P)

0.8%

0.8%

Medium

11:00

EUR

ECB Announces 3yr LTRO Repayment

-

-

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2020

1.2196

1.2287

1.2372

1.2463

1.2548

1.2724

GBPUSD

1.5517

1.5599

1.5636

1.5681

1.5718

1.5763

1.5845

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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