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Pound May Rise on PMI Data, Aussie Gains as RBA Dents Rate Cut Bets

Pound May Rise on PMI Data, Aussie Gains as RBA Dents Rate Cut Bets

Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC

Talking Points:

  • Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Talks Down Interest Rate Cut Speculation
  • British Pound May Rise as If Upbeat PMI Print Fuels BOE Rate Hike Bets
  • See Economic Releases Directly on Your Charts with the DailyFX News App

The Australian Dollar outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move followed the RBA monetary policy announcement, where Governor Glenn Stevens and company re-stated the now-familiar call for a “period of stability in interest rates” once again.

A rehashing of the status quo seemingly drove the Aussie higher in that it clashed with more dovish market expectations. Indeed, the priced-in 12-month RBA policy outlook (as implied in OIS rates) has deteriorated dramatically over the past two weeks, appearing to lean toward a rate cut being expected in 2015 ahead of the RBA announcement. The central bank offered to confirmation of such sentiments, saying inflation is seen staying on target in the next two years (and thereby implying no intention to change course in the near term).

November’s UK Construction PMI report headlines the economic calendar in European hours. The index is expected to edge lower for the second consecutive month, showing the pace of homebuilding sector growth slowed to the weakest since May.

UK news-flow has cautiously improved relative to consensus forecasts over recent weeks, hinting that analysts are underestimating the economy’s vigor and opening the door for an upside surprise. Such an outcome may fuel bets on the relatively sooner onset of BOE interest rate hikes, boosting the British Pound. For its part, technical positioning bolsters the case for an upside scenario.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

22:30

AUD

ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Conf

113.9

-

114.3

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base (YoY) (NOV)

36.7%

-

36.9%

23:50

JPY

Monetary Base - End of Period (¥) (NOV)

262.7T

-

259.5T

0:00

NZD

ANZ Commodity Price (MoM) (NOV)

-1.6%

-

-0.8%

0:30

AUD

Current Account Balance (A$) (3Q)

-12.5B

-13.5B

-13.9B

0:30

AUD

Net Exports of GDP (3Q)

0.80

0.65

-0.90

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (MoM) (OCT)

11.4%

5.0%

-11.2%

0:30

AUD

Building Approvals (YoY) (OCT)

2.5%

-6.0%

-11.4%

1:30

JPY

Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (OCT)

0.5%

0.8%

0.7%

3:30

AUD

Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision

2.50%

2.50%

2.50%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

9:30

GBP

Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (NOV)

61.0

61.4

Medium

10:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (MoM) (OCT)

-0.3%

0.2%

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone PPI (YoY) (OCT)

-1.3%

-1.4%

Low

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2289

1.2377

1.2424

1.2465

1.2512

1.2553

1.2641

GBPUSD

1.5337

1.5515

1.5623

1.5693

1.5801

1.5871

1.6049

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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