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US Dollar, Pound May Weaken if Soft News-Flow Dents Rate Hike Bets

US Dollar, Pound May Weaken if Soft News-Flow Dents Rate Hike Bets

2014-12-01 06:28:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie Dollar Sinks on Chinese Deposit Insurance Scheme, Soft PMI Report
  • British Pound May Decline as Weak News-Flow Undermines BOE Outlook
  • US Dollar Vulnerable if ISM Pullback Weighs on Fed Rate Hike Speculation

The Australian Dollar underperformed in overnight trade, falling as much as 0.8 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move may have reflected the announcement of a Chinese bank deposit insurance cap over the weekend. The PBOC said it will introduce a new scheme guaranteeing deposits up to CNY500,000. That scraps the heretofore implicit guarantee that Beijing will backstop its banking sector, signaling that policymakers are prepared to allow some lenders to fail.

This introduces risks that may undermine economic growth in Australia’s largest export market, which could carry negative spillover effects and spur RBA easing. Indeed, the Aussie fell alongside the yield on Australia’s benchmark 10-year bond. A disappointing Chinese Manufacturing PMI print compounded selling pressure, showing factory-sector activity growth slowed to the weakest in eight months.

Looking ahead, UK Manufacturing PMI figures headline the economic calendar in European trading hours. The report is expected to show the pace of sector activity growth slowed in November after posting the first improvement in four months in September. Separately, Mortgage Approvals are seen dropping to 59,000 in October, the lowest since June 2013. Soft news-flow may delay the expected onset of BOE interest rate hikes, weighing on the British Pound.

Later in the day, the US ISM Manufacturing print enters the spotlight. Consensus forecasts call for the gauge to drop back to 58.0 in November having tagged a three-year high at 59.0 in the prior month. That may extend the timeline for the onset of Fed tightening in the minds of investors, pressuring the US Dollar after the benchmark unit advanced to a five-year high to start the trading week.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Terms of Trade Index (QoQ) (3Q)

-4.4%

-4.5%

0.1%

22:30

AUD

AiG Perf of Mfg Index (NOV)

50.1

-

49.4

23:00

AUD

CoreLogic House PX (MoM) (NOV)

-0.3%

-

1.0%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (NOV)

0.1%

-

0.2%

23:30

AUD

TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (NOV)

2.2%

-

2.3%

23:50

JPY

Company Profits (3Q)

7.6%

-

4.5%

23:50

JPY

Company Sales (3Q)

2.9%

-

1.1%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending (YoY) (3Q)

5.5%

2.0%

3.0%

23:50

JPY

Capital Spending excl Software (YoY) (3Q)

5.6%

1.5%

1.9%

0:30

AUD

Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (3Q)

0.5%

-1.3%

-7.5%

0:30

AUD

Inventories (QoQ) (3Q)

0.7%

0.2%

0.9%

1:00

CNY

Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

50.3

50.5

50.8

1:35

JPY

Markit/JMMA Manufacturing PMI (NOV F)

52.0

-

52.1

1:45

CNY

HSBC Manufacturing PMI (NOV F)

50.0

50.0

50.0

5:00

JPY

Vehicle Sales (YoY) (NOV)

-13.5%

-

-9.1%

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index (NOV)

86.4

-

87.7

5:30

AUD

Commodity Index (YoY) (NOV)

-18.6%

-

-17.6%

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:30

CHF

Manufacturing PMI (NOV)

53.1

55.3

Medium

8:45

EUR

Markit/ADACI Italy Mfg PMI (NOV)

49.4

49

Low

8:50

EUR

Markit France Mfg PMI (NOV F)

47.6

47.6

Low

8:55

EUR

Markit/BME Germany Mfg PMI (NOV F)

50.0

50.0

Medium

9:00

EUR

Markit Eurozone Mfg PMI (NOV F)

50.4

50.4

Medium

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (3Q F)

-0.1%

-0.1%

Low

9:00

EUR

Italian GDP s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (3Q F)

-0.4%

-0.4%

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Consumer Credit (OCT)

1.0B

0.9B

Low

9:30

GBP

Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (OCT)

1.8B

1.8B

Low

9:30

GBP

Mortgage Approvals (OCT)

59.0K

61.3K

Medium

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (MoM) (OCT)

-

-0.7%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Money Supply (YoY) (OCT)

-

-2.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

M4 Ex IOFCs 3M (Annualised) (OCT)

3.7%

3.5%

Low

9:30

GBP

Markit UK Mfg PMI s.a. (OCT)

53.0

53.2

Medium

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2330

1.2393

1.2423

1.2456

1.2486

1.2519

1.2582

GBPUSD

1.5416

1.5541

1.5593

1.5666

1.5718

1.5791

1.5916

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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