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Euro Vulnerable as German CPI, Draghi Commentary Looms Ahead

Euro Vulnerable as German CPI, Draghi Commentary Looms Ahead

2014-11-27 05:56:00
Ilya Spivak, Head Strategist, APAC
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Talking Points:

  • Aussie, NZ Dollars Rise as Australian 3Q Capex Data Tops Expectations
  • Japanese Yen Higher as Nikkei 225 Drops, Fueling Safe-Haven Demand
  • Euro Vulnerable with German CPI, Draghi Commentary in the Spotlight

The Australian and New Zealand Dollars outperformed in overnight trade, rising as much as 0.5 percent apiece against the majors. The move followed a supportive Australian Capital Expenditure figures that showed spending on fixed assets unexpectedly rose 0.2 percent in the third quarter. Economists were forecasting a decrease of 1.9 percent ahead of the release.

An increase in capex outlays bodes well for Australian economic growth, which is in turn supportive for RBA interest rate bets. It is likewise positive for New Zealand’s output and monetary policy prospects considering Australia is the island nation’s largest export market, accounting for over 20 percent of cross-border sales.

The Japanese Yen likewise advanced, adding as much as 0.4 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move paced a drop in Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index, pointing to risk aversion as the catalyst behind demand for the safety-linked currency.

Looking ahead, November’s preliminary German CPI report is in focus in European trading hours. The baseline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to decline to 0.6 percent, the lowest in nearly five years. A soft outcome may fuel speculation about ECB stimulus expansion, weighing on the Euro.

The single currency may find added downward pressure from scheduled commentary by ECB President Mario Draghi. The central bank chief may echo yesterday’s remarks from Vice President Vitor Constancio, who said doubts about the potency of QE are “not well founded” and alluded that the decision to buy sovereign bonds could be made as soon as the first quarter of next year.

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Asia Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

ACT

EXP

PREV

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance (NZ$) (OCT)

-908M

-642M

-1367M

21:45

NZD

Trade Balance YTD (NZ$) (OCT)

-107M

183M

633M

21:45

NZD

Imports (NZ$) (OCT)

4.94B

4.60B

4.98B

21:45

NZD

Exports (NZ$) (OCT)

4.03B

3.85B

3.61B

0:00

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (OCT)

3.0%

-

0.0%

0:30

AUD

Private Capital Expenditure (3Q)

0.2%

-1.9%

1.6%

1:30

CNY

Industrial Profits (YoY) (OCT)

-2.1%

-

0.4%

2:00

NZD

RBNZ Net Currency Sales (OCT)

-1M

-

-30M

European Session

GMT

CCY

EVENT

EXP

PREV

IMPACT

8:15

CHF

Industrial Production (YoY) (3Q)

-

3.1%

Low

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change (NOV)

-1K

-22K

Medium

8:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate s.a. (NOV)

6.7%

6.7%

Medium

9:00

EUR

ECB's Constancio Presents FSR

-

-

Medium

9:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 s.a. (YoY) (OCT)

2.6%

2.5%

Low

9:00

EUR

Eurozone M3 s.a. (3M) (OCT)

2.4%

2.1%

Low

9:30

GBP

Lloyds Business Barometer (NOV)

-

35

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Economic Confidence (NOV)

100.3

100.7

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Industrial Confidence (NOV)

-5.5

-5.1

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Consumer Confidence (NOV F)

-11.6

-11.6

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Services Confidence (NOV)

4

4.4

Low

10:00

EUR

Eurozone Business Climate Indicator (NOV)

0.02

0.05

Low

11:30

EUR

ECB's Draghi Speaks in Helsinki

-

-

Medium

12:00

EUR

German GfK Consumer Conf (DEC)

8.6

8.5

Low

12:15

EUR

ECB's Weidmann Speaks in Frankfurt

-

-

Low

13:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) (NOV P)

0.0%

-0.3%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) (NOV P)

0.6%

0.8%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (NOV P)

0.0%

-0.3%

High

13:00

EUR

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (NOV P)

0.5%

0.7%

High

Critical Levels

CCY

Supp 3

Supp 2

Supp 1

Pivot Point

Res 1

Res 2

Res 3

EURUSD

1.2318

1.2406

1.2456

1.2494

1.2544

1.2582

1.2670

GBPUSD

1.5505

1.5632

1.5712

1.5759

1.5839

1.5886

1.6013

--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

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